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TABLE 3

The Audubon Plan Compared with a DOE Projection Made in 1979

Assuming Similar Growth in GNP:

(The Audubon Plan's 80 quads in the year 2000 will provide goods and services that would require 122 quads if the less efficient equipment of today were used)

(a) An example of older projections, based on low world oil prices, which did not consider the impact of efficiency improvements to be significant. Annual Report to Congress, 1978, Energy Information Administration, Washington, D. C., DOE/EIA 0173/3, 1979. The latest DOE Annual Report does project that greater efficiency in energy use will occur by the year 2000--enough to lower this number by 10 quads. (An additional 4-quad reduction, bringing the total down to 108 quads, is assumed by DOE to result from a slight decrease in the projected economic growth rate.)

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living (as measured by GNP) will increase rather than decrease.*

(It should be noted that GNP is by no means synonymous with quality of life. Nevertheless, since economists use this measure, it is

necessary to make clear the Plan's impact on GNP.)

One measure of the energy efficiency of the economy is

the ratio of GNP to energy consumption.

Along with most analyses

and as a continuation of the trend in recent years, the Audubon Plan projects a 50 percent to 80 percent increase in this ratio by the year 2000.** The increase is hardly extreme since the net ratio would still be less than typical ratios found in European countries today--and certainly less than the ratio that Europeans will reach by the year 2000. If the United States cannot achieve comparable energy efficiencies, we will have increasing difficulties competing in the world market.

*It is difficult to accurately project future population growth for a number of reasons--especially because of lack of knowledge of future fertility rates and ignorance of the true rate of illegal immigration. In the absence of accurate figures, the Plan conservatively assumes a year 2000 population of 280 million. (The mid-range U.S. Census Bureau prediction is 260 million.) year 2000 population of 280 million would imply a much higher rate of illegal immigration than is generally assumed.

For a 2 percent per year economic growth rate, GNP increases 50 percent by the year 2000, and the per capita share of GNP rises by 20 percent (1.5/1.25). For a 3 percent per year economic growth rate, GNP increases 80 percent by the year 2000, and the per capita share of GNP rises by 44 percent (1.8/1.25).

**For a 2 percent growth rate in GNP, the GNP/energy ratio is projected to increase by 50 percent. For a 3 percent growth rate, the ratio is projected to increase by 80 percent.

A

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SUMMARY TABLE

Table 4 summarizes the supply side of the Audubon Plan,

including a breakdown of the use of intermediate fuels (alcohol,

synthetic fuels, electricity purchased from utilities, and so forth). Details concerning both supply and demand are given in the appendices for the four end-use sectors: Buildings, Transportation, Energy-Consuming Industry, and Energy-Producing Industry.

Separate tables (corresponding to each column in Table 4)

that compare the Audubon numbers with DOE projections for 2000, as well as with historical data, are included in the appendices. Although Table 4 may initially appear complicated, it

is included because it has proved extremely useful in developing and understanding the Audubon Plan. An explanation of how it is used is given in Footnotes for Table 4.

Cogeneration (the simultaneous production of electricity and process steam) is not directly shown in Table 4 but is included under industrial coal and gas use.

Nevertheless, cogeneration

accounts for the equivalent of 2 quads of electricity.

That is,

if there were no cogeneration, the electric utilities would have to generate an additional 2 quads of electricity. Some of the cogenerated electricity will be consumed on-site, some will be sold to neighboring industries, and some will be sold to electric utilities for redistribution through the utility grid.

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TABLE 4

Energy Source for Each Sector (in Quads)

(Master Table for the Audubon

Year 2000 Energy Plan)

[A negative entry implies an output of energy (in the form of fuel or electricity);
a positive entry implies a consumption of energy in the sector (a)]

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FOOTNOTES FOR TABLE 4

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

The "-7.8" figure that is the final item in the column labeled
"Electricity-Producing Industry" indicates that a net 7.8 quads
of electricity was sold to other sectors. 22.9 quads (the sum
of the numbers above the 7.8) were required as input to produce
the 7.8 quads of electricity sold. The difference (22.9-7.8-15.1)
represents the net loss in energy for the electricity-producing
sector and is listed as the total of the column.

To see how the 7.8 quads of electricity sold was distributed
among the other sectors--4.0 to buildings, 1.0 to transporta-
tion and 2.8 to industry--see entries in the same horizontal
row in which the "-7.8" figure appears.

Similarly, consider the "-1.5" figure for alcohol listed under
the column labeled "Other Energy-Producing Industry."
This fig-
ure indicates that 1.5 quads of alcohol was sold. Reading across
the same row shows that all of the alcohol was used in the trans-
portation sector.

Excludes electric utilities. Includes industries producing synthetic fuels, oil, gas, coal, uranium, energy-alcohol and biogas.

Primary fuel--or, in the case of hydro, wind and photovoltaics,
"primary-fuel equivalent," that is, three times the output elec-
tricity. The term "primary-fuel equivalent" is the amount of in-
put energy that would be necessary to produce the same amount of
electricity if it were generated in a thermal plant. The term is
useful for some purposes, not useful for others. The concept has
become standard in studies for comparing energy supply sources.

The use of primary-fuel equivalents for this category is useful for
comparison with the other numbers in the table except for the sup-
ply category labeled "Electricity Purchased from Utilities," which
represents the actual net quantity of electricity purchased, not
the primary-fuel equivalent of the purchased electricity.
Thus,
to determine the relative amount of electricity provided from this
category in comparison with purchased electricity, it is necessary
to divide the number appearing here by three.