The Art of Causal Conjecture

Voorkant
MIT Press, 1996 - 511 pagina's

In The Art of Causal Conjecture, Glenn Shafer lays out a new mathematical and philosophical foundation for probability and uses it to explain concepts of causality used in statistics, artificial intelligence, and philosophy.

The various disciplines that use causal reasoning differ in the relative weight they put on security and precision of knowledge as opposed to timeliness of action. The natural and social sciences seek high levels of certainty in the identification of causes and high levels of precision in the measurement of their effects. The practical sciences -- medicine, business, engineering, and artificial intelligence -- must act on causal conjectures based on more limited knowledge. Shafer's understanding of causality contributes to both of these uses of causal reasoning. His language for causal explanation can guide statistical investigation in the natural and social sciences, and it can also be used to formulate assumptions of causal uniformity needed for decision making in the practical sciences.

Causal ideas permeate the use of probability and statistics in all branches of industry, commerce, government, and science. The Art of Causal Conjecture shows that causal ideas can be equally important in theory. It does not challenge the maxim that causation cannot be proven from statistics alone, but by bringing causal ideas into the foundations of probability, it allows causal conjectures to be more clearly quantified, debated, and confronted by statistical evidence.

 

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Inhoudsopgave

Event Trees
31
Probability Trees
63
The Meaning of Probability
91
Independent Events
113
Events Tracking Events 735
135
Events as Signs of Events
153
Independent Variables 767
167
Variables Tracking Variables 789
189
An Abstract Theory of Event Trees
229
Martingale Trees
247
Refining
275
Principles of Causal Conjecture
299
Causal Models
331
Representing Probability Trees
359
Glossary of Notation
485
Index
501

Variables as Signs of Variables 275
215

Veelvoorkomende woorden en zinsdelen

Over de auteur (1996)

Glenn Shafer is Professor at Rutgers University's Graduate School of Management.

Bibliografische gegevens