Economics Research

One of the objectives of arms

military expenditures.

control is the reduction of global

Research in support of this objective in 1987 was

directed to analyses of the economic impact of the INF Treaty, defense

spending and national budgets, and military procurement. ACDA economists reviewed Soviet and Eastern European countries' national accounts and

prepared monographs on such issues as Gorbachev's economic reforms and their impact on Soviet military spending. The US defense budget was analyzed and prepared for submission to the United Nations as a part of the UN military expenditures reporting program. ACDA was represented at the 1987 NATO Economic Colloquim, "The Soviet Economy: A New Course", held in Brussels in April. ACDA was also represented at the UN meeting at Geneva in December concerned with Economic and Social Consequences of The Arms Race. Two interagency committees, each of which included an ACDA economist as a member, held sessions during the year; one committee was charged with preparing the third annual report to Congress concerning the impact on the US economy of the use of offsets in arms exports and the other with the problem of US arms transfers data collection.

The collection and analysis of economic, military expenditure, and arms transfer data from 145 countries together with the reporting of such data in the annual ACDA publication, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, has caused ACDA to become a leading international source for information on country military programs. The 1986 edition of the report was published in May 1987 and the 1987 edition will be published in March

1988.

Weapons are the embodiment of scarce resources which have alternative uses. While defense spending is designed to meet a real or imagined external threat and presumably is in the best interests of a nation, such spending constitutes a diversion of resources from civilian investment and consumption. This diversion could cause over time a weakening of a country and, as a consequence, invite security problems. ACDA economists continue to investigate the impact of defense

spending on national

economies and ways in which arms control can play an economic as well as a

a classified computer

the ACDA VAX computer has been fully operational as system. This system now gives all Agency personnel ready access to both classified computations and classified information retrieval.

The classified computations are required for the mathematical and statistical analysis performed in support of the development of arms control options and for the development and evaluation of effective verification provisions for these options. A Base Case Study was completed with the use of a model which simulates the effects of a global nuclear exchange and evaluates the capability of nuclear forces. This study examined a variety of force structures and arms control options from both a US and Soviet point of view. It should provide some insight on the reasons for differences between the United States and the Soviet Union on

certain proposals and may lead to possible areas of concordance. The Operations Analysis Division has begun an extended analysis phase of this study. This phase will focus on the impact of strategic postures on mobile missiles and on the strategic defense initiative. Future analysis phases will extend the time frame of the analyses past the year 2000.

In support of testing limitation verification requirements, ACDA continued to provide technical and administrative management of two Defense Advanced Research Project Agency external research projects:

Statistical Aspects of Yield Estimation. Under this program, papers were completed on methods for improving seismic yield estimation capability and compliance decision procedures.

O Nuclear Monitoring Applications Analysis. The main

purpose of

this project is to assess the impact of various test ban scenarios on nuclear capability and, ultimately, on strategic stability.

A number of classified information retrieval systems have been

developed and are operational on the ACDA computer. These studies provided the statistical analysis and the geophysical information required for an interagency paper on threshold test ban verification which contributed to the US position for ongoing discussions with the Soviet Union. Other papers were written assessing, on the basis of seismic evidence, Soviet testing practices with regard to the 150 kt threshold

limit of the TTBT.

The ACDA Library

The ACDA Library maintains a current collection of pertinent books, periodicals, documents, and reference materials. Also available through information retrieval systems and inter-library loan facilities. The collection complements the much larger Department of

the Library are

State Library collection.

External Research

ACDA, during FY 1987, sponsored external research covering a wide range of arms control issues. The topics included such general subjects as verification, nuclear safeguards, nuclear test ban monitoring and crisis stability issues.

Specific projects included studies on verification methodology and assessments, remotely monitored sensor systems, an international plutonium management system, reduced enrichment in research and test reactors, development of initiatives in international spent fuel management, nuclear test limitations and the Soviet test program, detection and identification needs for low yield threshold test ban treaties, and issues in quota limits on nuclear test limitations.

The Reduced Enrichment in Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) program was begun in 1978. The primary objective of the RERTR program is to minimize international commerce in highly enriched (weapons grade) uranium (HEU) required to fuel research and test reactors throughout the world by encouraging their conversion to low enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. The RERTR program, implemented through DOE's Argonne National Laboratory, has developed new high density LEU nuclear fuels which can be substituted for

HEU now in use. The provision of this technology plus the supply of technical assistance to the reactor operator for the relicensing of the reactors has expedited the conversion of the reactor cores. ACDA has

strongly supported the objective of the program.

DOE had been the fund

source of the program but decided not to fund it in 1987.

Since ACDA has

the necessary legal authority and technical capability to carry out the program, it was decided to fund the program from ACDA research monies during 1987. The RERTR program is scheduled for completion in 1990. Due to its nonproliferation significance, ACDA fully supports efforts to bring the program to an orderly conclusion.

In addition, ACDA sponsored meetings and conferences to assess crisis stability issues such as the role of arms control during a transition to strategic defenses, the implications of strategic defenses on

space relations, and the Soviet

relationship.

perspective and the

space and offense/defense

Hubert H. Humphrey Fellowships in Arms Control and Disarmament

of arms

Hubert H. Humphrey Fellowships in Arms Control and Disarmament, designed to encourage specialized training and research in arms control, are sponsored by ACDA as a part of its legislatively mandated responsibilities for the conduct, support, and coordination control research. Named in honor of Senator Humphrey, who was a strong arms control advocate, Humphrey fellowships are awarded to advanced graduate students for the purpose of supporting Ph.D. dissertation requirements. Candidates for the J.D. degree are also eligible for Humphrey Fellowships during their third year. Candidate qualifications and their Ph.D. dissertation or J.D. thesis topics must be approved by the selection committee. Ten rounds of competition have been held since the inception of the program in 1979 and a total of 52 awards have been made to date. Two fellows were selected for Humphrey Fellowships in 1987.

William C. Foster Fellows

In December 1983, the Arms Control and Disarmament Act was amended to

provide for the establishment of "a program for visiting scholars in the field of arms control and disarmament." The purpose of this program is "to give specialists in the physical sciences and other disciplines relevant to the Agency's activities an opportunity for active participation in the arms control and disarmament activities of the Agency and to gain, for the Agency, the perspective and expertise such persons The law states that the visiting scholars are to be chosen by a board chaired by the current Director and composed of all former

can offer."

directors of ACDA.

Six scholars were selected for its first program in 1984-85, five for 1985-86, one for 1986-87, and two for 1987-88. The scholars' assignments to ACDA were effected under the provisions of the Intergovernmental Personnel Act. In honor of the first director of ACDA, William C. Foster, who died on October 15, 1984, these visiting scholars are known as William C. Foster Fellows. Fellows selected for 1987-88 are:

Planning began in the Fall of 1987 for the fifth year of the Program.

ACDA is the key agency for preparing three

statutorily-mandated reports, Arms Control Impact Statements (ACIS), Report on Soviet Noncompliance, and Adherence to and Compliance with Agreements. It also submits its statutorily-mandated Annual Report. In addition to those four reports, ACDA also prepares annually two other reports which, over the years, have become useful and popular reference documents, World Military and Arms Transfers (WMEAT) and Documents on Disarmament. From time to time, ACDA publishes reports on specific arms control issues and updates the compendium, Arms Control and Disarmament Agreements. ACDA

Expenditures