national accounts and prepared monographs on such issues as Gorbachev's economic reforms and their impact on the Soviet military. US defense information was analyzed and prepared for submission to the United Nations as a part of the UN military expenditures reporting program. ACDA was represented on a US delegation to NATO in April; the delegation met with colleagues from other NATO countries for the purpose of drafting an Alliance report on the impact of Gorbachev's economic reforms. The collection and analysis of economic, military expenditure, and international trade data from 145 countries together with the reporting of such data in the annual ACDA publication, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, has caused ACDA to become a leading international source for information on country military programs. Operations Analysis and Computer Support During the past year, there were substantial accomplishments in the areas of operations analysis and computer activities. The most important step was the expansion of a classified computer system. This system now gives all Agency personnel ready access to both classified computations and classified information retrieval. The classified computations are required for the mathematical and statistical analyses performed in support of the development of arms control options and for the development and evaluation of effective verification provisions for these options. Studies are being performed with the use of a model which simulates the effects of a global nuclear exchange and evaluates the capability of nuclear forces. These studies will examine a variety of force structures and arms control options from both a US and Soviet point of view. They should provide some insight on the reasons for differences between the US and the Soviet Union on certain proposals and may lead to possible areas of concordance. ACDA staff members completed several papers on the reduction in the uncertainty of seismic yield estimates that would be provided by calibration tests in Soviet test areas. These studies provided the statistical analysis and the geophysical information required for an interagency paper on threshold test ban verification which contributed to the US position for ongoing discussions with the Soviet Union. Other papers were written assessing, on the basis of seismic evidence, Soviet testing practices with regard to the 150 KT threshold limit of the TTBT. In support of testing limitation verification requirements, ACDA provided technical and administrative management of two Defense Advanced Research Project Agency external research projects: Statistical Aspects of Yield Estimation. Under this program, papers were completed on methods for improving seismic yield estimation capability and compliance decision procedures. O Nuclear Monitoring Applications Analysis. The main A number of classified information retrieval systems have been developed and are operational on the ACDA computer. The ACDA Library The ACDA library maintains an extensive current collection of pertinent books, periodicals, documents, and reference materials. In addition to the collection located within the ACDA office area in the Department of State Building, the library also maintains a Special Arms Control Collection, open to the public, at the Marvin Gelman Library of George Washington University. External Research During 1986 ACDA sponsored external research embracing a number of projects on many areas of arms control and weapons research. The topics ranged from such general subjects as avoiding war and controlling arms to the year 2000 to the specifics of IAEA safeguards for plutonium fabrication. Some of the studies included the Soviet view of arms control issues, a mobile ICBM study, interactions between SDI and offensive ballistic missiles, technologies for strategic defense, US and Soviet dependence on space assets, telemetry in arms control verification, techniques for remote detection of chemical weapons production and storage facilities, assessment of geophysical variations across Soviet nuclear test sites, evaluation of yield estimates from individual seismic stations for test ban verification, safeguards for plutonium fabrication and storage facilities, data base for international spent fuel and plutonium disposition, cooperative measures for antisatellite arms control, arms control verification of the SDI surveillance program, and an in-depth survey of the impact of arms control on national security and on US-Soviet relations. Hubert H. Humphrey Fellowships in Arms Control and Disarmament ACDA sponsors Hubert H. Humphrey Fellowships in Arms Control and Disarmament. These fellowships are designed to encourage specialized training and research in the arms control field. The program is part of ACDA's legislatively mandated responsibilities for the conduct, support, and coordination of research on arms control and disarmament policy formulation. Named in honor of Senator Humphrey, who was a strong arms control advocate, Humphrey fellowships are intended for the support of advanced graduate students who have completed all their Ph.D. requirements except for the doctoral dissertation. Candidates for the J.D. degree are also eligible for Humphrey Fellowships during their third year. Nine rounds of competition have been held since the inception of the program in 1979 and a total of 51 awards have been made to date. Four fellows were selected for Humphrey Fellowships in 1986. William C. Foster Fellows In December 1983, the Arms Control and Disarmament Act was amended to provide for the establishment of "a program for visiting scholars in the field of arms control and disarmament." The purpose of this program is "to give specialists in the physical sciences and other disciplines relevant to the Agency's activities an opportunity for active participation in the arms control and disarmament activities of the Agency and to gain, for the Agency, the perspective and expertise such persons can offer." The law states that the visiting scholars are to be chosen by a board chaired by the current Director and composed of all former directors of ACDA. Six scholars were selected for its first program in 1984-85, five scholars for the 1985-86 program and one scholar for the 1986-87 program. The scholars' assignments to ACDA were effected under the provisions of the Intergovernmental Personnel Act. In honor of the first director of ACDA, William C. Foster, who died on October 15, 1984, these visiting scholars Planning began in the summer of 1986 for the fourth year of the Program. PUBLICATIONS Two statutorily-mandated reports are prepared annually by ACDA: Arms Control Impact Statements (ACIS) and the Annual Report. ACDA is the key agency for preparing two other statutorily-mandated annual reports, Report on Soviet Noncompliance and Adherence to and Compliance with Agreements. countries totaled $15.85 billion, compared to US assistance to Central America of only $3.19 billion. In 1986, US arms transfers and security assistance to Latin America went primarily to Central America, the Andean countries, and the Caribbean. In Central America, economic and military assistance continued within the framework of a long term plan to implement the 1984 Bipartisan Commission Report on Central America. In 1986, about three-quarters of US aid to Central America continued to be in the form of economic, rather than military aid. The bulk of arms transfers during the past year went to El Salvador and Honduras to assist those countries in deterring and combating aggression in the face of the threats from Nicaragua and Communist-supported insurgents. Complementing its assistance programs, the United States has continued to give its support to the development of a verifiable peace treaty for Central America on the basis of a full and simultaneous implementation of the Document of Objectives subscribed to by the Central American and Contadora nations. These include noninterference in the affairs of one's neighbors, serious dialogue with domestic opposition groups, free elections, removal of foreign military personnel, and a reduction of armaments. In South America, US arms transfers in 1986 were designed primarily to assist the democratic countries of the Andean region to fight the dangerous and growing threat posed by drug traffickers and insurgents. Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela were the largest recipients. In the Caribbean, US assistance, more in the form of economic than military aid, has been provided to support the difficult economic adjustment process and assist the Caribbean nations' efforts to modernize and professionalize their security forces. Narcotics production and trafficking is a growing problem in the region requiring resources to combat the problem. |