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disuse, and is not likely to be re- ships can find shelter. Eastward of stored.

Sinope the ports are still only open Trade between civilized countries is roads, but the temperature is higher, never entirely stopped by frontiers the wind and

the waves

less and duties, and the land and sea threatening and there is more possiroutes of which Constantinople is the bility of intercourse between sea and centre have here been surveyed in land. It is the forbidding aspect of order to show that with the restora- the sea that gives so much importance tion of civilization to the region in to the inland communications in northwhich at present the sultan holds western Asia Minor, which for this sway Constantinople must necessarily reason appears to be marked out by become one of the world's great centres nature for the control of a ruler esfor trade and shipping. A different ques- tablished on the Bosphorus. It is evition arises when we ask what is the dis- dent, however, that a state confined trict of which the natural and necessary to this region alone could never be a capital lies by the Golden Horn. This first-rate power, and that to give to the region must hardly be sought in Eu- ruler of Constantinople the control of rope beyond the immediate shores of resources sufficient to ensure his indethe Dardanelles. At any rate, the pendence among the powers it would basin of the Danube and the basin of be necessary to add to his dominions the Vardar, with Saloniki, cannot be the west and south-west coast of Asia included in it, though a power strong Minor. In that case his country would enough to hold Constantinople by its be as large as Spain, and better en. own resources would probably main- dowed than the Spanish peninsula in tain itself at Adrianople, and might respect of fertility and natural advan very well dominate the Valley of the tages. Maritza, and possibly the eastern part The Gordian knot of the Eastern of the Rhodope Mountains. But the question is the problem of the future history of its foundation suggests, and ownership of Constantinople. The a study of the map confirms, the be subject is beset with SO many lief that Constantinople looks rather difficulties that no one who has thought to the east than to the west. South of seriously about it is tempted to offer the Dardanelles the west coast will a dogmatic solution. At any rate no always carry on its trade rather by sea harm can come of the attempt to exthan over the rugged hills which sep- plain the question by a brief review arate it from the remote interior. But of some of the issues which are at the inland region north of the Taurus, stake. It is convenient to begin with and between the Sea of Marmora and the commercial interests, which fall Amasia and Samsun, seems by nature under three heads according as they to belong to Constantinople.

are Russian, Danubian, or British. this region the land routes, as we have Russia owns more than half of the seen, all lead to Broussa, Ismid, and coast of the Black Sea, and three of its the Bosphorus, while from the north principal rivers are hers. The whole coast such traffic as there is, would of the maritime trade of her southern naturally go by sea to the same point. provinces, except in so far as it is a But the north coast of Asia Minor is local Black Sea trade, must necesby no means favored for navigation. sarily pass through the Bosphorus. Along its whole length the mountains The maritime trade of the Danubian fall almost straight into the sea, and it countries, of Roumania, Bulgaria, Ser has not a single good harbor. In point bia, and of Hungary and Austria in so of climate it is divided into an eastern far as it does not find a more and a western half, which meet at 'venient route by the Adriatic, is also Sinope. Between Sinope and the Bos- necessarily compelled to pass through phorus the sea is usually cold and the straits. The recent completion of stormy, and there is no port in which the works by which the rapids at the

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Iron Gates have been rendered navi- that the city passes into the hands of gable must greatly increase the im- a civilized government. A very strong portance of the Danubian trade both power might use its establishment on to Austria-Hungary and to her neigh- the straits for the purpose of acquiring bors lower down the stream. The a monopoly of the Black Sea navigaBritish interest arises from the fact tion by means of preferential duties or that the imports and exports to and one-sided regulations. In so far as from both southern Russia and the this is probable it would be an arguDanubian countries are for the most ment against a Russian acquisition of part carried in British ships.1 But Constantinople. whereas the Russian and Danubian in- A weightier factor in the problem is terests are necessary and permanent, revealed by a consideration of the efthe British interest may fairly be de- fect which the fate of Constantinople scribed as accidental and temporary. must have upon the distribution and The principal maritime and commer- application of force between the great cial power will probably always be the powers. Perhaps the clearest way of principal customer in the trade both of discussing this part of the subject i: southern Russia and of the Danubian to examine in turn each of a series of countries; so long therefore as Eu- hypotheses. Suppose then, in the first gland retains her maritime and com- instance, that Constantinople and the mercial greatness she may be expected Dardanelles passed into the possession to retain her share in the Black Sea of Russia. It would, of course, not be trade. That share depends, however, difficult for a civilized power so to fornot upon England's geographical posi- tify the Dardanelles that their pas tion, but upon what may in a large sage by a hostile fleet would be imsense be called the accident of her practicable, and that the works covermaritime preeminence.

ing them would form a first-class There would, perhaps, be some jus- fortress, that is, a position not to be tification for putting these commercial taken except after a protracted siege. interests into the foreground. Against In that case, Russia would be able to that view may be cited the analogy of exclude from the Black Sea all ships the Sound and the Baltic trade which of war but her own; the sea would be makes it probable that the course of for purposes of military transport a trade would not be greatly affected Russian lake. Her armies could be by the fate of Constantinople provided moved across it without any possibility

1 The following figures are taken from the Board of Trade Returns for 1895 :

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The trade of Russia mostly passes through the Northern Ports, as may be seen from the following return for 1894,which does not distinguish between Northern and Southern Ports :

Total Tonnage entered for Russian 625,142 in Russian ships.
Ports from all countries

7,933,188 in Foreign
Cleared from Russian Ports for all 603,372 in Russian
countries

7,913,888 in Foreign This gives a clue to the share of foreign (largely British) ships in Russia's trade.

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of hostile interference with them, and able to prevent Russia's seizing Conas there is no means of preventing stantinople and the Dardanelles by a from the land the landing of an army coup de main. If she were to do so moving freely by sea (because an army Germany and Austria would probably carried in steamers moves many times be compelled to invade Russia in order faster than an army upon land) there to force her to disgorge her prey. would be no possibility of successful France would then certainly attack resistance to Russian attack by any Germany, and the success of the cencountry bordering on that sea. Rou- tral powers would depend upon the mania, Bulgaria, and northern Asia extent to which England was willing Minor would at once become in fact, and able to help them. Lord Salisif not in theory, portions of the Rus- bury's declaration in 1886 that England sian Empire. The frontier which Rus would co-operate with Austria in resia would thus acquire would place the sisting a Russian attempt upon the eastern half of the Austro-Hungarian straits was not without effect. Its monarchy at her mercy. This solution repetition in 1896, though it may perthen is incompatible with the preserva- haps not be appropriate at the Guildtion of Austria-Hungary as a great hall, would be no less effective. power, as a State strong enough to re- A second hypothesis is that of the sist the dictation of any one of its acquisition of Constantinople by Ausneighbors. It may be assumed then tria. This would involve no menace that Austria-Hungary would prefer to to the western European powers nor this solution of the Eastern question a to Germany. Indeed the extension of war in which her independent exist- the Austrian Empire to the Taurus ence would be staked. But Russia in would probably lead to the absorption possession of the Dardanelles would by Germany of the Western or German secure a further advantage. Within half of the present Austrian monarchy. the Black Sea she could keep in train- The Black Sea would not become an ing a navy as large as she pleased, ab- Austrian lake, but there would sooner solutely safe from hostile attack, and or later be a naval war between Ausyet always at liberty to take the of- tria and Russia for its command, in fensive against other navies. The which, however, the cessation of her great addition to Russia's resources of trade would paralyze the southern every kind and to her forces for attack provinces of Russia, and an Austrian and defence which she would acquire victory would be disastrous to the upon this hypothesis, make it the gen Northern Empire. For these reasons eral interest of the European com- Russia is as strongly driven to resist munity to resist the acquisition of the an Austrian acquisition of Constantistraits by Russia. The present Euro- nople as Austria to oppose a Russian pean system is bound up with the co- attempt upon that place. existence of a number of great powers, Neither Russia nor Austria is likely and implies that none of them shall at present to take a step calculated to be so much stronger than its neigh- involve her in a great war; it is much bors as to overshadow and overawe more probable that the two governthem. In this European interest ments have exchanged assurances to France is undoubtedly a partner, al- the effect that neither of them contemthough her present policy appears cal- plates obtaining possession of the Bosculated to promote her own specific phorus. No other great power can and immediate interests at the expense dream of acquiring the city. The third of those remoter interests which she hypothesis then is that of Constantishares with the rest of the European nople as the seat of government of a nations.

of European origin acting, The peculiar feature of the present either in his own name or under the situation is that it is doubtful whether nominal authority of the sultan, as any or all of the powers are in fact administrator-general of the district,

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already described, of which Constanti: the possibility of a British counter atnople is the natural capital, with or tack in the region where Russia is vulwithout the addition of western and nerable. Either the straits should be southern Asia Minor. This form of closed to the passage of the ships of settlement may possibly enough come war of all the powers, or open to them under the consideration of the powers all. If they are closed there is no reaas part of a scheme for the reconstitu- son why R should maintain in the tion of Turkey without territorial ag. Black Sea a naval force greater than grandizement for any of their number. is needed for the local police of that The difficulty lies in the regulation of

But Russia declines this soluthe status of the straits. Two cases tion. If they are declared open Russia are worth •examining. In the first will always be tempted to seek suffiplace, the passage of war-ships through cient influence over the local governthe Dardanelles or the Bosphorus ment at Constantinople to bring about might be absolutely prohibited. The their closing to the ships of her enprohibition would have to be enforced emies, or, if such influence cannot be either by the joint action of the con- obtained, to seize and close the straits tracting powers whenever the case by her own forces when the occasion arose or by the action of the local gov- arises. ernment, which would maintain

The desire of Russia that no foreign army and the fortifications of the fleet should be able to enter the Black straits. This plan 'has been tried. By Sea, and that she should thus be sethe treaty of 1856 the sultan was cure against attack in that quarter is bound to exclude foreign ships of war natural, and, perhaps, even reasonable, from the straits, and limitations were but it is at least as natural and as imposed upon the fleets which either reasonable that England and the other Russia or Turkey might maintain in maritime powers should object to a the Black Sea. But Russia look ad- Russian fleet being permitted to issue vantage of the temporary impotence of from that sea. The closure of the France in 1870 to refuse any longer straits to ships of war might be ef to be bound by these conditions, and fected by separating the ownership of the sultan was in the subsequent ne- Constantinople from that of the Dargotiations (1871) given a discretionary danelles. A principality of Constantipower to permit ships of war to pass nople with northern and central Asia the straits. By the Treaty rf Unkiar Minor, is not more rational nor more Skelessi (1833), dictated by Russia, the natural than a principality of western sultan was bound to close the Dar Asia Minor, with its capital at Smyrna danelles at Russia's request, “that is and its northern limits at the Mysian to say, not to allow any foreign vessel Olympus, the Sea of Marmora, and the of war to enter therein under any pre- lines of Bulair. text whatsoever." A comparison of In case it were intended that the these two stipulations, both the out- straits should be open to the ships of come of Russian initiative, shows that war of all the powers the best territothe Russian policy is to have the rial solution would probably consist in straits open to Russian men-of-war but the separation of their European from closed to those of all other powers. their Asiatic shores. Ismid might then This would give Russia a peculiar ad- become once more what it was in the vantage. Her fleet would be avail- time of Diocletian, the seat of governable for attack against her enemies, ment for northern Asia Minor. yet she would be secure against the The questions which have here been offensive operations of their fleets. raised deserve more attention than This is an arrangement to which En- they seem to have lately received in gland ought never to consent, for it England, for upon these matters the would enable Russia to take part in an powers must be agreed before they attack upon British sea-power without can hope to act harmoniously for the

BY IVAN TOURGENIEFF.

alleviation of the sufferings of the Ar- side I have made an excellent choice. I menians, and the hardly less unfortu- shall get leave of absence and come to nate Osmanli inhabitants of Anatolia. Moscow to see you. You may expect SPENSER WILKINSON.

me in a fortnight at latest. My dear, kind mother, how happy I am! Loving remembrances, kisses, etc., etc."

Kister folded and sealed the letter,

rose, went to the window, lighted a THE BULLY,

pipe, pondered a short time and then

sat down again at the table. He took a Translated for THE LIVING AGE by Mary J. small sheet of letter paper, and thoughtSafford.

fully dipped his pen into the ink; but CHAPTER IX.

it was some time before he began to Three weeks after this conversation write. He frowned, stared at the ceilKister was sitting alone in his room ing, chewed the end of his penholder. writing his mother the following let- At last he resolved to begin-and after ter:

fifteen minutes the following note was “My beloved Mother,

written: “I hasten to tell you the great happi- "Sir,ness in store for me: I am about to "Since your last visit (three weeks marry. The news will probably sur- ago) you have neither bowed nor spoken prise you, especially as my former to me, and seem to wish to avoid me. letters have contained no allusion to Each individual can of course do as he such an important change in my life chooses. You thought it advisable to and you know I am in the habit of con- end our acquaintance; believe me, I do fiding to you all my feelings, all my joy- not address you to-day to complain of ful and sorrowful experiences. The your conduct. It is neither my inten. cause of my silence is easily explained. tion nor custom to force myself upon I have only recently obtained the assur- anybody; the consciousness that I have ance that my love was returned, and wronged no one is amply sufficient. If until a short time ago I was not also- I write to you now, it is solely from a lutely certain of the real nature and sense of duty. I have asked for Marja power of my own feelings. In one of Serjevna's hand and, with her parents' my first letters from here I mentioned consent, am betrothed to her. I tell you our neighbors, the Perekatoffs. My be. this at once in order to prevent any trothed bride-her name is Marja-is misunderstanding or misinterpretation. their only daughter. I am sure we shall I frankly own, Captain Lutschkoff, that be happy together. My love for her is I have no occasion to trouble myself no passing fancy, but a deep, genuine about the opinion of a man who does affection, in which love and friendship not pay the slightest heed to the views join. Her gay, gentle nature is exactly and feelings of others; I write to you what I particularly admire in women. that there may not be even the appear. She is highly educated, talented, and ance of any underband work on my very musical. If you could only see part. I may be permitted to suppose her! I send you her picture, which I that you know me sufficiently well not sketched myself. But she is a thousand to misconstrue my present step. As I times more beautiful. Marja already am writing to you for the last time I gives you a daughter's love and can cannot help, in the name of our former scarcely wait for the day when she will friendship, wishing you all possible make your acquaintance. I have de happiness. termined to leave the army, settle in the "I remain, with sincere regard, country, and devote myself to farming.

“Yours truly Old Perekatoff owns four hundred serfs

“FEDOR KISTER." -şo he is in very comfortable circumstances. You see, even on the practical Fedor sent off the missive at once,

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