£10,000,000 contributed directly by Americans to the relief of the Allied wounded and other citizens of the Allies who have suffered from the effects of the war.

It is interesting to note that the cause of the Allies has uttered a more imperious call to American adventure than has the need of the American Government for troops to patrol the border of the United States to guard against Mexican attack. More organized troops have been sent to the Mexican border under orders than have gone unorganized and without orders to join the forces of the Allies in their struggle against Germany, but these troops sent towards Mexico have been either regulars or State militia. The number of fresh volunteers secured so far for the Mexican campaign does not equal the American force now in the Allied Armies. Of course, should the United States actually and seriously go to war with Mexico there would be no lack of men to join the colors; a half-million would be forthcoming at short notice if the situation became alarming.

As matters now stand, however, and in view of the announced policy of Washington, there is apparently no opportunity for great adventure, no glory is to be achieved and no great issue of right or wrong decided by acting as policemen along the Rio Grande. The average American, especially from the West and Southwest, who has been brought in contact with the border Mexican has an utter contempt for him as a soldier, a citizen, or a man. The "Greaser," as he is termed, has few friends and no admirers among those familiar with his character, habits, and activities. The direct thinking and acting Americans of the West and Southwest would give the Mexicans short shrift if they were allowed the conduct of affairs, and the patience and distinguished consideration accorded by President Wilson has given rise to

vast discontent in States like Texas, where the Mexican question is one vital to the pride, prosperity, and even the safety of several million people. In the opinion of these Americans there is no principle involved at all in the Mexican question. The leaders of the various factions are personally known to many people north of the Rio Grande, and they are classed, without a single exception, as a lot of murderous bandits quarreling among themselves over the spoils of blackmail, theft, and murder, and united in the fear that intervention by the United States means the end of all opportunity for them to pursue their nefarious careers.

To select the man least guilty of them all is here believed to be a task far beyond the power of the Washington Government, and nothing that has been done or left undone by the United States authorities has helped in any way to alter this conviction; in fact, it is confirmed by each successive failure of note or punitive military expedition to do away with the fact that American life and property are unsafe in Mexico and will be until some hand stronger than any yet in evidence grasps the situation with the will and purpose of carrying out, with severity if necessary, a fixed policy. Even farther away from Mexico than the border American States this opinion prevails to a certain extent, but as the distance increases the Mexican question becomes less personal to the citizen, and where theorists, reformers, peace advocates, and unpractical idealists have greater sway and larger audiences, discussion takes a less practical direction, and the real issue, the hopeless anarchy prevailing in a country of nearly a million square miles and with a population of about fifteen millions, is lost sight of in the confusion of wordy argument as to land titles and the rights of the governed to govern themselves.

The late President, Porfirio Diaz,

himself originally a revolutionary of the border type, rose to power through being an excellent soldier with a talent for administration, an understanding friendliness for foreign capital and its representatives, and the possession of an iron hand relentlessly exercised in the suppression of all disorder. He knew his people, and they knew and feared him. When his firm grasp relaxed through the weakness of oncoming years his knowledge of Mexico and her people led him to Europe to find a natural and peaceful end, rather than to remain and inevitably fall a victim to those who conspired around him. There were many scandals in the Diaz administration, and his rule was severely criticised as being far from harmonious with the democratic principles enunciated in the Mexican constitution. The former critics of the Diaz administration would, however, now welcome the return of that Dictatorship which with all its faults was far and away the best government Mexico ever had, and better than any to be expected from the administration of any one of the band of cutthroats now acclaiming themselves as the saviors of Mexico.

President Diaz grew with his office. As the country developed so did he, and one of the most significant illustrations of this growth is a comparison of the two oil portraits of General Diaz now in the City of Mexico. One shows him as an army officer at the date of his inception into the office of President, and the other was painted from life at the height of his power and towards the end of his reign. The history of modern Mexico up to his retirement lies between these two portraits.

"What my people need," he once said, "is a strong personal government, and," he added, after a short pause, and with a certain grimness of expression, "that is what I am giving them." Another opinion he once confided to a friend was concerning the written con

stitution of Mexico. The remark was made that this was modeled after the constitution of the United States. "Yes," said President Diaz, "it is, and it is more ornamental than useful." It is asserted by the reformers that the top, bottom, and both sides of the Mexican problem is to be found in the land question. President Wilson has accepted this point of view. He has been trying to find a man whom he could support for the Presidency of Mexico who would view matters likewise, and who would at once inaugurate a really muchneeded reform. The trouble is with this very much mixed up affair that peace must come first and with it a legislative body organized with some chance of being able to enforce the laws it may enact. An improved government cannot be given to Mexico until a government exists which offers itself for improvement, and at present there cannot be said to be any real government at all.

That President Wilson has changed his views on Mexican affairs from time to time is not remarkable; in fact, it is a favorable sign, for he started out with a lot of theories which had to go by the board before his vision became at all clear. That he has not wanted to go to war against Mexico is true, and to his credit, for out of such a war would come no glory for the United States; it would be in the nature of a stern duty. From such a war would come a vast encumbrance, attended by enormous expense and serious political problems difficult of solution. Once the Philippines were in hand the United States could not let go, no matter how much the American people want to take this course, as they certainly did and still do. They could not abandon the country to worse ills than a foreign occupation. It would be the same with Mexico and worse, for the whole question of Pan-American unity and Latin-American confidence in the United States is involved in the treatment of Mexico. The people of

South and Central America are watching the progress of events with uneasiness and even alarm, for they have little faith in the Altruism of nations.

Three months must yet elapse before the national election in America, and much can happen in that time, but after all it is not a great span of time, and through diplomatic exchanges it may be possible for President Wilson to maintain the status quo in the foreign relations of the United States over that period. That is what will be done if it is possible, and it would be most inconsiderate of the Germans to raise any further issue with the United States before November, as it would also be most ungrateful of Carranza, the protégé of President Wilson, to do likewise at so critical a time in American politics, for the success or downfall of his erstwhile patron may be determined by the action taken by Carranza, the nominal President pro tem. of Mexico by the grace of Washington. This Mexican issue is filling a large place in American political discussion at this time. The opposition is making much of the troubles of the Administration in that direction, and the assertion is made that if the trouble had been dealt with promptly and with greater firmness matters would not be as bad as they are now. Mr. Hughes, the Republican candidate for the Presidency, has not yet told us how he would have done better or what he would do now if he were President, but a plan for the "beneficent pacification" of Mexico may be forthcoming early in the active phase of the campaign. The question is one that would really puzzle any President, no matter how positive and bold his character, for to pacify Mexico at this time means really to conquer it first, and the conquest of Mexico has never been an easy task. It would at the present time involve the United States in a really serious war, requiring seven hundred thousand men and vast expenditure.

Such a war would arouse no enthusiasm among the American people, for it is and would be a purely police job, with no gain for the party that took it on other than the restoration of order in that disturbed neighborhood.

It would bring in its train a heritage of hate on the part of a large number of the Mexican people, and seriously endanger the harmony of the Pan-American choir. A policy of drift is the safest politically for President Wilson so long as the current of events does not become strong enough to drown the swimmer. The important announcement has been made that ex-President Roosevelt will support Mr. Hughes. Such support will alienate a few, but will bring to the support of the Republican candidate the enthusiastic Roosevelt following. This will lend a "certain liveliness" to the campaign which it would otherwise lack. For the first time for several years the Republican party is united in its attack upon the opposition, and the election will be a fair test of strength on both sides. In times gone by it would have been possible to indulge in prophecy as to the outcome, and such a prophecy would now favor the "outs," but confused political conditions, lack of definite issues between the parties, and a growing independence among the voters render it futile to predict at this time the re-election or the defeat of President Wilson.

There is considerable uneasiness in Washington just now as to what Germany may do in the desperate position with which she is now threatened. A renewal of relentless and indiscriminate submarine warfare is strongly urged by many German newspapers and publicists. Such a development would at once place President Wilson in a most uncomfortable position. It will be recalled that in the German Note to America, in which it was agreed to conform to the wishes of the United States in the matter of submarine warfare against

merchantmen, it was clearly intimated that, should the protests of the United States Government fail to ease off the blockade of Germany by England, the right to a new decision was reserved. The blockade is constantly growing tighter and more effective, and it is not inconceivable that Germany might at any time hold herself to be released from any promises made in view of what the German Government might hold to be the ineffectiveness of American pressure upon the Allies. It may easily be assumed that as the war progresses and the position of Germany becomes less favorable, every form of "frightfulness" will be renewed and new ones brought into play. On land and sea and in the air Germany will exercise her utmost power to damage or discourage the Allies, even though such effort be foredoomed to failure in winning the war. Such demonstrations will be put forth as arguments in favor of a peace based upon compromise. These efforts may take the most dramatic form, and countries hitherto resting with apparent safety in armed neutrality may suddenly find themselves faced with the great decision.

No question of international law or courtesy to neutrals will be allowed to stand in the way of Germany's final efforts, and President Wilson is now enjoying a truce rather than the secure results of a diplomatic victory. Before peace comes there will be an outburst of armed fury in Europe from the effects of which no nation, neutral or otherwise will escape unscathed. It will be a time when the peoples of now neutral countries will require the services of leaders capable of quick and stern decisions, for academic protests will be as the whistling of the winds. This moment may not come before next November, and if so President Wilson may count himself as politically fortunate, for the diplomatic house of cards in which the neutrality of the United States is now The Fortnightly Review.

sheltered may fall with a crash in the storms yet to come which even now threaten on the near horizon.

Another issue has come to the fore in the American political campaign quite unusual in American politics, and that is a comparison of the personality of the two candidates, Wilson and Hughes. With all the freedom that is given to the American Press, and with all the pernicious intrusion into private affairs that finds expression in the columns of American newspapers, it has been many years since the personality of the candidates has played any part in the publicity work of a campaign, no matter how great the temptation may have been to use material at hand. In reading the American newspapers today, however, much can be gleaned from between the lines. Something seems to be struggling against precedent and unwritten rules for clearer expression, and that something finds itself articulate in the communications of man to man. The demand is made in print for a comparison of the personal characters of Woodrow Wilson and Charles Evans Hughes. This demand will not be satisfied in print, but the mere suggestion of such a demand means to the man in the street that there are other issues to be voted upon than the attitude of the American Government towards Mexico and the war in Europe, and this is another reason why it is practically impossible at this time to estimate the strength of the two candidates with the mass of the voters.

In all countries with unrestricted franchise elections have been won or lost at the last moment by psychological waves which have swept across the national mind, swamping on their way the political hopes of one or the other candidate. It is this sort of thing, now so possible of occurrence in America, that makes it unsafe to build a political prophecy upon the obvious news of the day.

James Davenport Whelpley.

IX. GALES.

'Tis the hard gray weather Breeds hard English men.

-Kingsley.

а

Very rightly did the bygone ages of seamen bestow on easterly weather its present fickle reputation. For four days out of a clear-cut black horizon the northeaster blew, with a low but steadied barometer; for four days we bucketed about amid waves that hourly seemed to grow bigger and more aweinspiring; for four days, chilled to the bone, we gazed out on the incessant white flurry of a gray and white seathe whole now dull and ominouslooking under a rolling dark sky, now sparkling steely, greeny black as brilliant sun lit up its crests and furrows; one day driving our nose into the foamcapped combers, the next riding comparatively easily with the tumult astern. Then, on the fifth morning, came the looked-for gentle rise of the glass, and it brought us by eveningnot, as we hoped, the climax of the gale before the calm, but biting villainous hail and rain. Still the glass rose slowly and easily, still the easterly weather lived up to its capricious character by doing anything but what one would have expected; then suddenly the rain stopped, in about an hour almost the wind died down, the barometer began to fall very slowly, and yesterday we had a perfect day of autumn sunshine-a day which, for the time of the year, seemed strangely and almost oppressively hot.

Evening saw us making for "home" with a gentle southeasterly breeze astern; by eleven we were safely at anchor, and quickly all who could turned in-to woo as many hours sleep as an *THE LIVING AGE, July 1, 1916.

early start at the 1800-ton coaling on the morrow would allow.

Ting-a-ling-a-ling-a-ling-a-ling...! Lying half awake in our hammocks this morning, we snatch a few seconds' grace before the ship's corporal again bestows his attentions on us, and simultaneously as he gives the footclews of the hammock that happens to be nearest him a violent jerk, commands us all and sundry to "Show a leg, show a leg, lash up and sto-o-w!" Lazily we rack our brains to put a name to that other noise that assailed our sleep-fuddled hearing when the "crusher" brought us to life a bare minute ago. Then Ting-a-ling-a-ling

. . . it again breaks forth.

The fog bell! So the easterly weather is treating us to the full gamut of his caprices-wind, rain, hail, sunshine, calm, and now fog.

But that is not going to postpone coaling. Oh, dear, no. Already the collier is timidly nosing her way towards

us.

We turn out, and, grumbling and grousing the while, perform that seemingly impossible feat of "cleaning" into a dirty rig. (The only explanation of this phenomenon necessary, however, is that a service dictionary-were there such a thing-would describe "clean," in the sense in which we use it, as"v., to dress, to put on clothes.") Presently, having successfully got outside a bowl of steaming cocoa, we are ready for the much-hated work of the day.

Perhaps some of the officers not needed on deck to superintend the work of securing and "rigging" the collier (a busy torpedo party have already turned night into day-so far as the fog allows-with clusters here and there of blazing electric lights) have given themselves a few minutes' grace, but