exceeding precariousness of the banana | others, I then deplored, and still decrop, to which reference will be made plore, the existence of this traffic, presently. Apart from soil and cli- because to set against the exceedingly mate, the only advantage which Aus- temporary advantage derived from it tralia could have over some of the by the importing countries, there is the competing countries would be a larger fact that the islands thus rendered local and protected market. If the vacant by the destruction of the native democracy of a federated Australia races cannot, like North America and should prove willing to purchase its Australia, be peopled by Europeans, requirements in tropical produce at a and will have to remain uninhabited price much higher than necessary for until that indefinitely distant period the benefit of a planter-aristocracy, the when other colored races come or are protected market thus afforded would brought thither from some other part be sufficiently large to give a substan- of the world. Despite, however, all tial advantage. But, for reasons given that can be said against it, the traffic below, even the large consumption has been renewed in Queensland, and thus exclusively supplied would sup- is likely to continue so long as the port an extension of cultivation only people are to be obtained. But unless up to a point immeasurably short of conditions have greatly changed in the the predicted development; and the ten years since I left the Pacific, that advantage would cease almost entirely cannot be very long. Possibly, if the when that point had been reached. present rate of importation into QueensFor the above reason it seems doubtful land (under twenty-five hundred per whether for any large supply of immi-annum) is not exceeded, the supply grants Australia would be able to compete with some other countries even on equal terms.

The

may, though I much doubt it, last twenty-five years. But by the end of that time, or before then if any larger Supposing, however, that it can offer importation be attempted, it will have inducements equal to any, another become completely exhausted. question then arises as to where the only other sources from which colored number of laborers can be obtained laborers can now be obtained, or are which would be the minimum required likely in the future to be obtained, are for a development of the kind contem- the densely populated countries of the plated. At the present moment, though Eastern Hemisphere - India, China, experimental importations have taken Japan, and Java. Of these China place from Java and Japan, practically must be left out of account, owing to the whole supply of colored laborers the recent prohibitive laws, which, for obtained by tropical Australia comes reasons to be indicated in connection from the Pacific Islands. The wages with the political difficulty, are very required for these people are very low, unlikely to be repealed. Japanese also and it is owing largely to that cause must probably be excluded from calcuthat the country has reached its pres- lation; for all previous experience goes ent production. But this source of to show, even that in respect of northsupply is an extremely limited one. In ern Chinese, that the inhabitants of a paper prepared by me, as high com- temperate climates have an enormous missioner of the western Pacific, for death-rate on tropical plantations, and the Australasian Convention of 1883 that therefore, humanity apart, their (the principal arguments of which importation thither for contract labor being very similar to those of this arti- is economically unprofitable. As recle had a very practical effect on that gards Java, the rapid increase of popuassembly with reference to the Pacific | lation may render it possible to obtain Islands) I pointed out that various recruits there; but the direct interest causes, of which the labor traffic was a of the Dutch government in cultivation potent one, were rapidly depopulating would probably preclude any large emiPolynesia. For this reason, among gration such as would raise the wages

of labor, while the great area of the energy have by this time made considDutch East Indies which is still un-erable progress towards the discovery cultivated would support a population of what kinds of tropical produce and immeasurably larger than the present what proportion of each kind hold out one. As regards India, the govern- the best prospects of profit in cultivament there has never yet been tion. But, besides this, there are other persuaded to permit recruiting for Aus- and stronger reasons, which will be tralia. Supposing, however, their ob- indicated in connection with the parjections overcome, and Australia left | ticular products, why the above proporfree to carry away all the people who tion is not likely to be disturbed by the could be induced to go there, the diffi- increase of other cultivation relatively culty of obtaining any large supply to that of sugar. Indeed, in view of would still be extremely great, if not the declining production of maize and insuperable. Even if the total number bananas, which occupy areas in extent of laborers (under twenty thousand per second only to that of sugar, indicaannum) which are now obtained with tions would seem to point rather in much difficulty by all the competing the other direction. Let us suppose, countries were to be doubled or trebled however, that the proportion remains and monopolized by Australia, the de- the same; in which case four million velopment created by them would not, acres of the above area would be in as we shall see, for centuries to come cane and two million in other cultivareach the desired point, and indeed tion. According to the present yield would never reach it in the absence of in Queensland (one and a half tons to natural increase, which, owing to the the acre) which the progress of science political difficulty hereunder described, will probably increase, the above area will probably have to be left out of of cane would produce six million tons. of sugar, this quantity being considerably more than double the whole of the cane-sugar consumed by the civilized world (2,805,733 tons per annum according to the returns of 1887), of which, moreover, 139,168 tons came from temperate climates (Louisiana and Egypt). It thus appears that when the above point of development has been reached, the consumption of cane-sugar will have more than doubled even if, the production of the rest of the world being extinguished, Australia were monopolizing the whole supply, and more than trebled if merely the increase of consumption were supplied from Australia, production elsewhere having remained stationary. Even if very large allowance be made for possible eventualities, the above consideration would seem to defer the supposed development to an extremely distant date; and there are also others, to be adverted to presently, which appear to indicate an even more indefinitely prolonged postponement. With a view,

account.

But even if all these difficulties should in some unforeseen manner be overcome, and Australia should be able to obtain laborers in practically unlimited numbers, there would still remain the greater difficulty, which consideration will quickly show to be insuperable, of selling at a remunerative price the enormous quantities of produce which would be necessarily involved in the contemplated development.

In order to appreciate this and other economical difficulties, let us suppose cultivation extended over six million acres, or less than one per cent. of the total area of tropical Australia.

And let us in the first place consider of what this supposed extent of cultivation would be most likely to consist. We have seen that at present in Queensland, the only part of tropical Australia where there is any agriculture of appreciable extent, the area of land in sugarcane is twice that of other cultivation. As it is now more than twenty years since the commencement however, to estimate its effects, let us of tropical agriculture there, it is prob- in the first place suppose that this deable that Australian enterprise and velopment has actually taken place.

Six million acres would require at most Cotton, though largely produced in two million laborers. As with few ex- the tropics, comes in far larger quanceptions white men do not remain in tity from temperate climates. In 1891 the tropics after they have attained the United States exported in quantity competency, and are specially unlikely 2,907,359,000 pounds, valued at $290,to do so in Australia, where they have 713,000 or nearly 60,000,000l., and a temperate climate on the same conti- Egypt exported a quantity of the value nent within easy reach, the number of of about 9,000,000l. ; while the export them as compared with the laborers of tropical Iudia was in quantity only will be very small. The proportion of 536,390,512 pounds valued at 12,743,white to colored varies greatly in differ-6791., the contributions of the rest of ent tropical countries under European the world being comparatively insiggovernment, being one to six hundred nificant. During the civil war in North in Ceylon, and one to ten in Barbados. America, which caused a partial failure It is abnormally large in the latter case of the world's cotton-supply, many atbecause of the survival in a degraded tempts were made elsewhere to fill the condition of many descendants of the void thus created in the market, and white slaves imported thither two several tropical countries (within my centuries ago. Apart from Australia own experience Fiji and Guiana) (where the mines have attracted a showed that they could grow cotton large and continually shifting popula- equal to the finest sea-island of Carotion of whites, while the great extent lina. But as soon as the war was over of pasture supports a considerable the United States quickly regained its number of white shepherds) no other former supremacy in production, with colony in the tropics has a proportion the result above indicated. As the nearly so large as Barbados. In order, available lands of the Southern States however, to be again on the safe side, are still largely uncultivated, and the let us suppose that the white popula- negro population, which supplies the tion connected with agriculture should necessary labor, is rapidly increasing, be double that high ratio, or twenty the advantage thus gained is likely to per cent., which for the above number be maintained, with the result that a of laborers would be four hundred large portion of any increase of the thousand, or less than one-eighth of world's consumption will be thence the present white inhabitants of tem- supplied. Failing the United States, perate Australia. Considering that the mining and pastoral population, whatever it may be, is much more likely to be in sympathy with the democracy of the South than with the aristocracy of the North, I regard the probability of the former being appreciably affected, not to speak of "profoundly modified," by the latter as scarcely greater than that of the United States being affected by the future development of Labrador or Greenland.

I have mentioned that there are still other economical difficulties than those already indicated in the way of the supposed development. In order to appreciate these, it will be useful to take a separate glance at the case of each of the leading tropical products, beginning with an article which is at least as important as any other.

there are large tracts still uncultivated in India, where labor is cheaper than in any other part of the world; and there is an immeasurably larger area of "uncultivation " in Burmah, the Malay Peniusula, Siam, Sumatra, Borneo, and the other islands of the Eastern Archipelago, to each of which countries Indian labor will either flow naturally, or be carried under the contract system at considerably less cost than to Australia; and several of which, moreover, have, or are likely to have, the advantage of Chinese labor, henceforward to be denied to Australia. Going farther afield, there are still uncultivated all but an infinitesimal portion of tropical South America, and by far the larger portion of the West Indies, Fiji, and

1 The West Indies, which supply so large a pro

crease of consumption, and would dwindle almost to vanishing point when the production became really large, or, say, equal to that of the comparatively small island of Cuba (646,588 tons). Hence the progress which has hitherto been made in sugar cultivation would be altogether misleading if it were regarded as a measure of the further development of the future; though this produce is always likely to retain its present relatively prominent position, not only for reasons previously indicated, but also because, owing to the great outlay required for works and machinery, the cost of wages bears a less than ordinary proportion to the total cost.

the Pacific Islands, which, though they | refined. It is evident, however, that are more distant than Australia from this advantage will be rapidly lost as the eastern labor-markets, have all to a increase of production outstrips ingreater or less extent the more than compensating advantage of local labor. In respect of every one of these countries we have heard at one time or another, probably with truth, of its great fertility, and its capability of growing successfully all kinds of tropical produce; and it would thus seem that, all things considered, they between them leave but little opening for cotton cultivation to tropical Australia. Sugar, which is of importance next to or equal with cotton, comes also largely from temperate climates. For of the 5,532,545 tons (beet as well as cane sugar) which appear in the returns for 1887 as the total of the world's supply, less than half came from the tropics. However, in the small agricultural development which has hitherto taken place in northern Australia, the cultivation of the cane occupies, as we have seen, a large place. This industry has hitherto had not only the advantage of the low-waged Polynesian labor, which, for reasons given above, will not continue long, but also another which is likely to be equally ephemeral, viz., that of a protected market for a large portion of its produce. Of the 61,368 tons of sugar produced in 1892, only 36,914 tons were exported; so that apparently 24,454 tons were consumed on the spot; this consumption of the home product being encouraged by a duty on imported sugar of 5s. a ton for "raw," and 6s. Sd. a ton for

portion of the world's tropical produce, though

they occupy so small a space on the map, might be supposed to be for the most part cultivated. But in fact they are so only to a very small extent,

and thus afford an illustration of the narrowness

of the area required for tropical cultivation. For instance, the island of Trinidad exported in 1890 51,000 tons of cane-sugar, or more than one-fiftieth of the world's supply produced in the tropics, and

21,552,593 pounds of cacao, which I know to be a

much larger part of the general total; and yet of its area of 1,754 square miles, under 200 square smallest islands, such as Barbados and Antigua, all the rest are equally or more uncultivated. Cuba, the largest, besides tobacco and other articles, exported in 1887 646,588 tons of cane-sugar, or more than one-fourth of the world's tropical supply.

miles are cultivated. Except two or three of the

Of other articles of tropical produce there are a considerable number, unnecessary to be specified in detail, which, as specially requiring cheap labor, are rarely, if ever, grown for export elsewhere than in the cheaplabor countries of the East. If their cultivation should ever spread beyond such countries, the causes indicated in connection with cotton would probably carry it into places presenting much more favorable conditions than Australia. In this category the important articles rice, tea, and quinine may almost be included. For though the rice grown in the United States is protected both by duty and by comparative proximity to market, while it is of a quality which gives it a specially high intrinsic value, yet I observe from an article by Mr. Chauncey Depew in this review of February last that the American planters are crying out for more protection against the rice of the East. And in further proof of the strength of the eastern position as regards the production of this article is the fact that. British Guiana and Trinidad, which have shown themselves able to grow rice equal to the finest of Carolina, and require very large quantities for the food of some two hundred thousand coolie immigrants, yet find it cheaper to import from the East than to culti

vate on the spot. Thus in the years | the downfall of slavery, put an end to 1890-2 these two colonies imported be- the formerly flourishing plantations of tween them 193,115,415 pounds, or an Demerara and Surinam. In the case average of 64,371,805 pounds per an- of all the other articles last enumernum. Tea, again, though it has been ated, there will probably be to a greater successfully grown in various countries, or less extent a climatic difficulty. has not, I believe, proved profitable And this especially in the case of cacao, else where than in Ceylon, Java, Assam, which requires a combination of heat China, and Japan, the cultivation in and moisture found only in very low the last three countries being, more- latitudes. In the northern hemisphere over, almost entirely extra-tropical. In its cultivation has never, I think, met Fiji, where the climate and soil proved with commercial success in a higher specially favorable, the evenly distrib- latitude than 14°, and as the southern uted rainfall producing more frequent hemisphere has a lower average tem"flushes" of leaves even than in Cey-perature, it may be doubted whether lon, yet the want of sufficient local labor proved a fatal obstacle to success. Lastly, quinine, though coming originally from South America, is now being cultivated almost exclusively in the East. That low-waged labor is specially necessary for it is shown by the fact that, though the cinchona-tree grows and yields remarkably well in Ceylon, its cultivation is no longer profitable there (the export of quinine having fallen in value from 327,7697. in 1886 to 53,0621. in 1892), the cause probably being the reduction of the market price brought about by the still cheaper labor of India and Java.

the cacao-vine could be anywhere profitably cultivated in Australia, except perhaps in the extreme north of the York Peninsula. Maize, on the contrary, is much more productive in temperate climates (unless I have been misled by what I have seen in Illinois and Iowa on the one hand, and in various tropical countries on the other); and hence by far the larger quantity consumed beyond the countries of production does not come from the tropics. In 1892 less than one-tenth part of the total quantity produced in Queensland came from the tropical district; and it may also be noted that between that Of articles which are largely or prin- year and 1891 the area occupied by cipally grown elsewhere than in the maize in Queensland decreased by East, those which deserve notice, viz., 9,426 acres, and the produce by 744,362 coffee, cacao, maize, bananas, cocoa- bushels, showing apparently, as I nuts, and tobacco, will all of them should have expected, that this cultiprobably meet with other obstacles, vation was not proving profitable.. Cobesides the labor difficulty, to any large coanuts, though they give a profitable production in tropical Australia. Cof- return to cultivation only in the immefee production was, up to a period still diate neighborhood of the sea, might recent, becoming gradually monopo- yet be very largely cultivated along lized by the East, when the destructive the immense coastline of tropical Ausleaf disease gave a renewed opportu- tralia, if other conditions were favornity to other parts of the world. If able. The fact, therefore, that none of this pest should not spread to the west- the various products of this palm apern hemisphere, any increase of pro- pear in the Queensland returns would duction may be looked for there, or seem to indicate a climatic difficulty in possibly in Africa; but as in the East this case also. Possibly, however, the it has reached the more distant Fiji, it sole cause may be found in the fact is not likely to be excluded from Aus- that the great area which has been tralia, should cultivation on a large brought into cultivation in other counscale be attempted there. And to this tries (according to the Colonial Office article also, as to so many others, list, 649,869 acres in Ceylon alone) has cheap "local" labor is almost a neces- sometimes reduced the price of the sity, it being the want of this which, on produce below the remunerative point