"Trust me," she said, like an angel call, "Tell me his danger, tell me all !" Quick resolve to a quick-told tale- THE AMERICAN TARIFF-ITS PAST AND ITS FUTURE. the full midday beam." The decision that Grover Cleveland shall be once more the President of the United States, and that the Democratic party shall once again control the destinies of that nation, may be accepted as an earnest of the determination of the American people to fling aside the crutches of protection, and rely on their own unaided strength for the time to come. It is natural that this decision on the part of so important a contributor to the manifold requirements of the United Kingdom should inspire feelings of hopefulness, almost akin to jubilation. A very large section of the manufacturing and commercial population of these islands appear to have been imbued with the conviction that if the United States were only to return the Democrats once more to power, the Tariff would be got rid of, and British products of manufacture would pour in upon the market of that country like a flood. It is no doubt true that the Democratic party are pledged to some modification of the Tariff. They have made the alleged failure of the M'Kinley Tariff the strongest plank in their platform. They have proclaimed that the cost of living has been increased under that measure, while wages have not advanced in a corresponding degree. They have enunciated the superior virtue of a low-tariff system, and the aid that it would be likely to afford in extending the export business of the United States a matter that is of paramount concern and importance to manufacturers; while they have dangled before the agricultural interest the tempting baits of cheaper labor, cheaper transport, and cheaper implements of husbandry. The victory, however, is by no means so complete as it would appear on the face of the situation. Cleveland is the President-Elect of the United States, in virtue mainly of the solid support which he has received from the Southern and some of the Central States. Those States, for the most part, want solidarity and cohesion. The Northern States, on the contrary, present an almost unbroken front in favor of protection, and they are well organized, skilled in tactical manoeuvring, possessed of large financial resources, and capable of bearing, with strong pressure, upon any Government that may happen to be in power, whether Republican, Democratic, or Mugwump. In these circumstances, Herbert Spencer's theory applies, namely, that "a comparatively small body of persons, coherent, having common interests, and acting under central authority, has an immense advantage over an incoherent public, which has no settled policy, and can be brought to act unitedly only under strong provocation." The agricultural and one or two minor interests in the United States are to some extent in the category indicated by the latter part of this remark. Not only so, but no Government is likely at present to be strong enough to sweep entirely from the statute-books the protective tariff, and establish a tariff for revenue purposes alone. To attempt anything of this kind would be, as I shall hope to show later on, to adopt absolute free trade, since the United States are now almost in a position to dispense with tariff revenue entirely. There must, therefore, be concessions and compromises on both sides. All Government," says Burke, "indeed every human benefit and enjoyment, every virtue, and every prudent act, is founded on compromise and barter." So it is certain to be, for a time at least, in the United States, and this principle may, indeed, be carried so far as to disappoint the not unreasonable hopes of the people of this country, that the greatest market in the world, and probably in the world's history, is once again to be found lying at the feet of British industry and commerce. 66 Apart from these considerations, however, it requires, I think, unusual temerity to allege that the tariff system of the United States has been a failure-for that country. America has for many years enjoyed an amazing degree of prosperity, so much so, indeed, that, to use again the eloquent words of Edmund Burke: gencralities, which in all other cases are apt to heighten and raise the subject, have here a tendency to sink it. . . . Fiction lags after truth, invention is unfruitful, and imagination cold and barren." There is no need again to relate the thrice-told tale of how the United States, largely ruined by the War of Secession, with an army in the field of over a million men, called from industries and agriculture to arms, to the partial paralysis of both these interests, with an accumulated debt of over 1,200 millions of dollars, and with credit almost destroyed, has in little more than twenty years become by far the richest country in the world, with teeming industries throughout the length and breadth of the land, with debt almost extinguished, with an enormous balance in the treasury, with credit of the highest order, and with prospects that are difficult to rival, and impossible to excel. It would, of course, be absurd to pretend that all this, or perhaps any great part of it, is owing to the tariff policy that has been more or less consistently adopted hitherto; but at least the tariff has not prevented the people of the United States, with characteristic enterprise, from taking advantage of the wonderful resources with which nature has so bountifully endowed them, and freely promoting their development. There are many tests to which the comparative success or failure of the United States, during recent years, may be brought. Some of the more obvious are those of national and local indebtedness, the rates of wages paid, the cost of living, and the accumulation of capital. Measured by all, as by any one of these standards, the United States will not be found lacking in success, but as there is a not unusual disposition to allege that the conditions of social well-being are not so satisfactory as they might be, and as the Tariff is freely blamed for this alleged condition of things, it is well that the actual facts should be put on record as briefly as possible. is shown in the Census Bulletin referred to to have fallen, in this interval, from 101.5 to 87.7 dols. per head, but the national debts of France, Germany, Italy, Russia, Spain, and nearly all other European states, have increased; and so also have the debts of most of the British colonies. And if it be maintained, as it fairly inay, that the conditions of the United States are not comparable with those of European countries, what shall be said of the fact that whereas the debt of the United States, as a whole, had fallen by nearly 60 per cent. between 1880 and 1890, that of the Australasian colonies generally had largely increased, until, in 1890, the average per capita debt of New South Wales was nearly eleven times that of the United States; that of New Zealand, nearly fifteen times as much; that of Queensland, nearly seventeen times as much; that of South Australia, about sixteen times as much; and that of Victoria, fully eight times as much! Canada, again, which had a less debt, by about six dollars per head, than the people of the United States in 1880, had 135 per cent. more debt per head in 1890. The increase of wealth and the decrease of debt generally go together, if they are not perfectly synonymous terms. Between 1880 and 1890 the increase of wealth, as measured by the returns of assessed valuation and the decrease of municipal debt have been exceedingly striking. In order to show this fact in the most A Bulletin recently issued from the vivid light, I have collated, from a nuinCensus office at Washington set forth the ber of Census Bulletins recently issued, total indebtedness of the world, less sink- the assessed valuation and municipal debt ing funds, as 5,164 millions sterling in of a number of leading and typical cities, 1880, and 5,400 millions in 1890. Of and have presented them in two separate these prodigious totals, the United States tables, the first showing the information had 485 millions in 1880, and 256 mill- specified for a number of cities in the ions in 1890. The debt of the latter Northern and New England States, and country had thus diminished in the inter- the second showing the same data for a val by 229 millions, while the debt of the selected number of cities chiefly in the rest of the world had increased in the in- Middle and Southern States. These cities terval by 465 millions. Put in another have been selected, not because of any way, the Federal debt of the United States special characteristics, or because they amounted to 46 dols. per capita in 1880, were in any way either above or below and fell from that figure to 20 dols. in the average, but simply because they were 1890, while the debts of the several states the only cities of which the required data and territories averaged 5.7 dols. in 1880, had come to hand at the time of writing. and fell to 3.5 dols. in 1890. Very few It will be seen from the following table countries that are equally at the head of (No. I.) that in the eight northern towns civilization have such a good record as the increase of assessed valuation in the this. The debt of Great Britain and Ireland period 1880-1890 was not less than 56.9 per cent., while there was an absolute decrease of nearly 20 per cent. in the amount of the municipal debt, that of Philadelphia showing a striking decrease :— I. STATEMENT SHOWING THE ASSESSED VALUATION AND MUNICIPAL DEBT OF THE PRINCIPAL MANUFACTURING CITIES OF THE UNITED STATES, IN EACH OF THE YEARS 1880 AND 1890 (1 = 1,000 dollars). II. STATEMENT SHOWING SIMILAR PARTICULARS TO THE ABOVE FOR TWELVE CITIES IN The Middle, Western, and SOUTHERN STATES (1 Assessed Valuation. = 1,000 dollars). tries. New York shows, under this head, an increase of 97 per cent.; Philadelphia of 91 per cent.; Chicago of 313 per cent.; Cleveland of 188 per cent.; St. Paul of 377 per cent.; and Denver of 533 per cent. The total amount of capital embarked in manufactures during the last ten years has increased by considerably over 100 per cent., so far as the information already at command, on census authority, enables us to judge. It is, however, possible that these figures may turn out to be somewhat delusive. There has of late years been a tendency in the United States to withdraw capital from investments that yield a low rate of interest, with comparative security, and place it out at higher rates of risk and interest in those manufactures that appeared likely to be the most protected and progressive, until there has been a real glut of production in almost every direction, and the means of output are largely in excess of normal requirements. The steel rail industry, and most allied industries, supply cases in point. In reference to both pig iron and steel rails, the United States are now equal to providing almost, if not quite, twice as large quantities as were called for last year. In the textile trades the capital invested has increased from 386 millions of dollars in 1880 to 701 millions in 1890 -an advance of 81.5 per cent., while the value of the product has increased from 500 millions to 693 millions. These figures, large as they appear, do not truly represent the advance in the production of manufactured textiles, inasmuch as, owing to the lower prices at which manufactured goods generally were sold in 1890, the advance in quantity was larger than that which took place in value. In silk, the increase in value was greater than in cotton, amounting to 112.7 per cent., and it will be remembered that this industry was subject to specially large importations. We have now seen that the United States, as measured by the more general tests of increase of wealth and reduced indebtedness, have prospered largely within recent years. This prosperity, however, might conceivably be inconsistent with realizing the main objects of protection, which is that of fostering industries that would hardly be likely to be successful if they had to face unlimited competition on equal terms. In other words, we have still to ascertain whether the Tariff has had the effect of more largely developing American manufactures, and of giving higher wages to the workers engaged therein. Manifestly, one of the best general tests to apply to the question of how far there has been a development of manufacturing industry, relatively to other occupations, is that of the percentage of the whole population engaged in production. In the United States as a whole, in 1880, there were 15.3 per cent. of the population engaged in agriculture and only 7.6 per cent. in manufactures, as compared with 23 per cent. engaged in manufactures, and 7.5 per cent. engaged in agriculture in the United Kingdom. In Belgium, which is a remarkably prominent industrial state, the corresponding totals were 14.6 per cent. in agriculture and 17.2 per cent. in manufactures; and in France 18 per cent. were engaged in agriculture and 12 per cent. in manufactures. Ten years ago, indeed, the United States were very backward, as compared with most European countries, from a manufacturing point of view. In the interval there ap pears to have been a process of revolution going on, for most of the principal cities have largely increased the numbers of their total population engaged in manufacturing industry. In New York, that percentage has increased from 18.8 to 23.1; in Philadelphia from 21.8 to 24.1; in Buffalo, from 11.5 to 19.2; in Rochester, from 15.7 to 24; in Chicago, from 15.7 to 18.5 per cent.; and in Cleveland, from 13.1 to 18.4. Taking the eight Northern and New England cities already tabulated, it appears that, in 1880, 19.9 per cent. of the whole population were engaged in manufactures, and that in 1890 this figure had increased to 23.7 per cent. In the Middle and Southern States the increase does not appear to have been so marked as might have been expected, but still in the few cities above tabulated (Table II.), the proportion has advanced from 13.6 to 16.5 per cent. In the case of one small town-Lynn, near Boston-no fewer than 34.5 per cent. of the total population were actually engaged in the work of production, a percentage that very few towns, even in the manufacturing districts of England, could equal. An analysis of the absolute number of hands employed in manufactures in the cities already named discloses some very |