DIVISION OF SCIENCE RESOURCES STUDIES September 1981 CURRENT LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS ATTACHMENT NSF has currently a survey of several hundred employers in the field. By late November, broadly representative information will be available on: the occupations in short supply, in balance or in surplus by degree level, industries of employment, region; perceived reasons for the problems; and adverse effects on employers. In order to develop interim information, interviews were conducted in July-August with 21 large companies (employing an average of 3,000 S/E's each), representatives of science and engineering professional societies, and staff of the Office of Personnel and Management. In addition, empirical data were examined including employment growth, unemployment rates, state employment services' job vacancy listings, College Placement Council recruitment activities and salary data. The following assessments, therefore, may not be truly nationally representative but do show the current situation as perceived in a good sample of large high-technology companies. It should be recognized that data were not available in many instances for all degree levels, sectors of employment, or fields of specialization within broader categories. OCCUPATIONS IN SHORT SUPPLY Engineers There are currently shortages of engineers in several fields of specialization. culties in filling their requirements for computer, electrical/ electronic and chemical engineers. Employers report some difficulties in recruiting mechanical, industrial, petroleum and mining engineers. There is evidence of an oversupply of civil engineers, and a balance for aerospace engineers. There is an acute shortage of Ph.D.'s for employment with universities and colleges, with unprecedented numbers of unfilled faculty vacancies caused by a movement to industry and a decline in the numbers of new Ph.D.'s. Computer Specialtists By all accounts, there are widespread shortages of computer specialists. There is virtually no slack in the supply with unemployment at a very low .5 percent. The college and university sector is particularly hard-hit due to new Ph.D.'s preferring higher paying non-academic employment and the movement of experienced faculty to industry. Statisticians There are probable shortages of statisticians at all degree levels. Demand is particularly high for those in computer applications. College teachers are in short supply. Mathematicians and Operations Researchers There are not enough Ph.D. mathematicians to fill the current demand, a large fraction of which is to alleviate shortages of computer scientists in industry. Shortages are particularly acute for applied mathematicians and operations researchers. Colleges and universities are having a hard time filling faculty vacancies. The market for mathematicians below the Ph.D. is, in general, soft. OCCUPATIONS IN BALANCE Chemists The market situation for chemists seems to be generally in balance. There has been no perceptible growth in total employment between 1980 and 1981. The American Chemical Society reports that for Ph.D.'s the unemployment rate is less than 1 percent and there are fewer graduates doing postdoctorals as a "holding action." The high demand for chemical engineers has been filled, in part, by employment of chemists. Physicists There seem to be good employment opportunities for BS- and MS-level graduates as well as Ph.D.'s and the job market for physicists is generally in balance. There are some shortages reported in the specialties of vacuum science, physics/engineering, optics, acoustics and medical physics. Computer science and engineering jobs have absorbed some physicists; and shortages of secondary school science teachers are developing as a result of out flow to industry. Geologists/Geophysicists The job market for geologists and geophysicists seems to be in general balance with good demand for most kinds of specialists with Masters and Ph.D. degrees. There may be surpluses of personnel in other earth science fields. Meteorologists The market for meteorologists is in general balance. The Federal Government employs about two-thirds of all meteorologists. OPM reports a balance in supply of applicants and jobs. However, with Government growth at a standstill and private sector job listings falling, there may be some surplus developing in the near future. Psychologists All reporting sources indicated a general balance between demand and supply for Ph.D. psychologists. Economists There has been a growth in demand for economists over the past year and a probable balance in the supply and demand at this time. SURPLUS OCCUPATIONS Biological Scientists There is a surplus of experimental and general biologists with two exceptions demand is high, but being satisfied, for molecular biologists for genetic engineering research, and a shortage of Ph.D. chemical laboratory workers for hospitals. Sociologists and Anthropologists The market is mixed with a probable surplus of theoretical sociologists and anthropologists. There are reported shortages of applied sociologists and a balance for applied anthropologists. Mr. BROWN. Thank you very much for that very good and stimulating statement. Let me ask you this: The previous panel indicated, particularly General Marsh, that perhaps the first and most important ingredient in resolving this problem must be the national commitment to achieve the technological and technical excellence which would support our national security. Would you agree with that? Dr. BRANSCOMB. I agree with that, certainly. Mr. BROWN. Do you see any reason why this administration and the leadership that we have, extremely able and competent people, would have any reluctance to commit this Nation to achieving that? Dr. BRANSCOMB. The only basis I could see for being reluctant to commit the Nation to that goal is the lack of power that our political leaders have to commit the Nation to a goal. I believe that those in positions of national leadership have a responsibility to speak out on their vision of what the Nation can be and what it can do. But I think the task of creating a national consensus is more than making a plan or establishing in law a goal, even though that is valuable. I am not even sure what comprises a national consensus. I don't think the Japanese did it by having someone announce the goal. I think the consensus was there in the Nation. I am less pessimistic than some of the earlier panelists about the attitudes of our people about technology. There is evidence that our public have a properly suspicious and jaundiced view about excessive claims from the technical community. Nevertheless, I think this country is proud of its technology, proud of its innovation. If we are given the leadership to which the public can respond with those genuine feelings, I think we can create a de facto national consensus which can rally all the parties. It is not just Government's problem. I put the responsibility also at the level of industrial leadership where a good many companies don't act as aggressively as their own company's technical performance might well justify. Mr. BROWN. I'm not suggesting that any one element is the only solution or key to it, but that perhaps it does begin with national leadership. We all ought to see our own leadership roles, here in this committee, the Congress, in the National Science Foundation, on the Board, and all others, including the professional organizations and industry, and we have had representations from all of these various points. We do have to put the pieces together. Dr. BRANSCOMB. I would observe that President Nixon issued a science and engineering message to the Congress. Mr. BROWN. It was the first such message. Dr. BRANSCOMB. That could be emulated. Mr. BROWN. At the risk of embarrassing you in your role as Chairman of the Science Board, let me ask you if there is any possibility that the mechanisms that we have already established in law for the creation of commissions by the Board might be a vehicle through which we can begin to address this problem, reaching-not so much reaching—but formulating and disseminating |