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work in research, development and application of technology shows no sign of abatement.

Unfortunately, the American colleges and universities are not

producing the required number or level of technical graduates to meet the increasing demand of the military, industry, and the universities themselves. Specifically, a Bureau of Labor

Statistics manpower study for the period 1980-1990 projects a net nationwide shortfall of 16,000 engineers each year.

Now let us consider the "supply" side of the supply-demand equation and, in particular, consider current and projected trends in engineer production as well as the potential inherent potential in engineering colleges and universities to respond to the need for increased engineer production.

Let us consider recent trends. The number of bachelor degrees awarded to engineering students increased steadily from about 38,000 in 1975 to about 58,500 in 1980, and will continue to 65,000 in 1985. After remaining fairly constant for several years, the number of master's degrees in engineering rose to about 17,250 in 1980 (an increase of 7.5 percent over 1979), whereas the number of PhDs dropped only slightly to 2,751 from 2,815 during the same period. Overall, the trends appear to be healthy, but there are indications they cannot continue and that they are in fact misleading.

First, the great increase since 1975 could mislead one to believe we are on the ramp of real, sustained growth. But, in reality, 1975 was the low point in engineer production in the past 15 years. That was the year when the dramatic drop in enrollments from 1970-71 showed up. You may remember the depression of the aerospace industry that received national attention in 1970. Thousands of engineers were out of work, and I remember vividly the billboard erected in Seattle that read, "Will the last person leaving Seattle please turn out the lights?" This did not go unnoticed by our youth, and caused engineering careers to look uninviting.

Second, when the engineer production figures mentioned earlier are modified to eliminate foreign student statistics, we find we have realized only a small gain in total output for U.S. engineers in recent years. Foreign student enrollments in U.S. engineering programs doubled between 1975 and 1979. In 1980, foreign students comprised 47 percent of the total enrollment in engineering at the doctorate degree level, 40 percent at the masters and eight percent at the bachelor level. We are, in fact, spending a significant part of our engineering training effort on people who are potential competitors and this adds further to the shifting technological balance I mentioned earlier.

Third, one should also examine the realism of the peak projection for 1985. Based on demographic trends, the number of engineering

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bachelor degrees awarded each year will peak at about 65,000 in 1985 and decline fairly steadily to about 46,000 in 1995. If my understanding is correct, engineering departments are straining to capacity right now, therefore, I question whether or not we can even reach that peak in 1985.

I am somewhat discouraged upon examining the potential for the U.S. educational system to respond to projected requirements for engineer production. The system lacks both the necessary "raw material" and "plant" capability. Too many students leaving high school are largely unqualified and unmotivated to pursue engineering; and, the facilities needed to improve engineering production are both understaffed and inadequately equipped.

The lack of "raw material" is the end result of a "grass root" problem starting at our secondary school level where students are ill-prepared and not motivated to prepare themselves for technical careers.

Consider the following:

There has been a 15-year decline in SAT scores both in mathematical and verbal, and in science and mathematics achievement test scores.

Just 3.4 percent of secondary school graduates have had one year of calculus; in the Soviet Union, all students get two years of calculus.

Only a small percentage of secondary school graduates
have taken courses in science subjects: physics--9.1
percent; chemistry--16.1 percent; and biology--
45 percent.

For most students, their last mathematics course is
10th grade geometry; their last science course is 10th
grade biology.

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Only about one-sixth of all secondary school students currently take junior and senior year courses in science and mathematics.

Seven states require no high school mathematics.

The result is that emerging high school graduates are illequipped to pursue engineering, or other technical courses of study at the college level.

And, even if students were motivated, or required to take such courses, a problem exists in having sufficient trained faculty to teach the courses. This stems from the fact that the faculties of technical high schools and colleges are lured to industry by high salaries. This vicious cycle undermines the capability of the supplier to produce technical graduates, much less improve production. Said another way, we are feeding our seed corn to the cattle so they won't starve this year. However, next year when there is no seed to grow corn to feed to the cattle....

Educational institutions are not only hampered by lack of adequate faculty, but also by the lack of adequate facilities. While some of the more renowned universities have been able to build new facilities, on the average engineering college facilities are about 30 years old.

Acceleration of technological progress during the last two decades has exacerbated the problem of outdated laboratory equipment. A growing gap exists between instructional equipment and equipment utilized in industry. A study sponsored by the

National Science Foundation states "The median age of the university instrumentation was twice that of the instrumentation in two major companies," and "University researchers frequently observe even the best industrial laboratories in this country do not compare with foreign laboratories."

Several years ago, the Engineers Council for Professional Development estimated that the new equipment needed by an engineering college would cost $100,000 per year per program, plus $150 per student per year. Most engineering colleges have nothing close to this amount at their disposal.

Given all these considerations, I seriously doubt that the dynamics of supply and demand can solve the problem. Thus, I foresee a serious, even critical, gap between the requirements for engineers (and other technically competent people) and potential supply unless we as a nation do something about it. I will suggest specific fixes later.

I mentioned that other countries emphasize the importance of engineering education. Well, our major competitors, both friend and adversary, appear to be committed to increasing their technical resources. Specifically, the Soviets graduate some 300,000 engineers annually--over five times our current rate. This represents a 300 percent increase in USSR engineering student output from 1960. In the meantime, the U.S. had a modest

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