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THE OUTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 1985

genuity of the U.S. academic and commercial communities can be exploited to gain competitive advantage. To do this, highquality design tools and fabrication systems need to be widely available. A component of the DARPA Strategic Computing Program will address this issue, but a supplementary NSF program aimed at making the resulting design facilities available to the entire U.S. computer science community also may be appropriate.

Increased attempts by the United States to learn from foreign developments, especially in Japan, are prudent in view of Japanese strength in certain lines of integrated circuit fabrication and current reports of rapidly growing capabilities in software. Much more systematic collection and translation of Japanese technical literature are called for.

Of course, there are other elements in the international competition in supercomputers that are not included in this brief discussion. These include:

• the appropriate role of government and industry in implementing the new computer architectures designed in the universities; for example, what would be the respective roles of government and industry in what is usually considered applied research and development?;

• problems arising from limited industrial access to supercomputers;

assuring continuity for recent attempts by the federal government to increase access to supercomputers by academic scientists;

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financial and other incentives for U.S. companies to develop a new generation of supercomputers; and

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⚫ the level of software development needed to ensure optimal application of parallel architectures.

Biochemical Engineering

Several countries are trying to develop strong biochemical engineering industries. West Germany, Japan, and Great Britain have national institutes for biotechnology. Such investments are driven by the economic potential of biochemical engineering.

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For example, it is estimated that global markets for biological products will run from $40 to $100 billion annually by the year 2000, or about 15 percent of the total annual market for chemicals.

The United States has a strong capacity for leadership in biochemical engineering, owing largely to the basic research conducted in American laboratories. Achieving that leadership requires a wider knowledge base than is now available, greater numbers of trained personnel, support for pilot studies of biochemical engineering processes, and working connections between basic biological research and engineering practice.

The knowledge needed has been summarized in Part I. Engineering personnel needs can be expressed as a shortage of both competent biochemical engineers and the faculty to train them. These personnel problems are worsening as biochemical engineering companies absorb both faculty members and recent graduates who have research and teaching talents. A second difficulty derives from the fact that many biotechnology companies tend to be small and oriented toward research and development, so that they do not have a sufficient variety of largevolume products to support the development of new pilot processes and large-scale production facilities. Further, the government, not currently a major buyer of biochemical engineering products, may see no reason for supporting pilot studies. The result may be a lack of both corporate resources and governmental rationale to initiate new production processes.

Overall, an issue for congressional consideration is strengthening the links between life scientists and biochemical engineers. Mechanisms might include:

• support for cooperative cross-disciplinary research;

• institutional grants to train graduate students;

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funds to enable academic units to purchase the equipment essential for contemporary research in biochemical engineering; and

• incentives for quality faculty to dedicate their careers to launching innovative university instructional and research programs.

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THE OUTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 1985

Advanced Polymeric Composites

While the United States has a sound position in advanced polymeric composites, vigorous programs also are proceeding in Japan and West Germany. The United States is strong in the chemistry of these materials, in their materials engineering, and in their application; Japan dominates in many aspects of carbon fiber technology.

As with computers and biochemical engineering, the best response of the United States is not necessarily to mimic international competitors. Rather, the effective transfer of information among basic, applied, and developmental activities is needed, as are mechanisms to enable different disciplines to work cooperatively on materials problems. Such disciplines include chemistry, physics, mechanical and chemical engineering, materials science, computer science, and toxicology. Only about 30 universities have research programs in advanced composites; of these, only two have multidisciplinary groups in the area. There are only 40 full-time equivalent faculty members in this field nationally.

In terms of national policy, a major issue is the creation of several research centers devoted to basic research on advanced composites. The goals of such centers could be to:

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carry out high-quality scientific and engineering research; perform toxicologic assessments;

provide scientists and engineers trained in specific disciplines for research on advanced composites; and

• infuse engineering curricula with new knowledge.

Issues for the Congress

These three fields-computers, biochemical engineering, and advanced composites-illustrate both special needs and general guidelines for maintaining their strengths. The general lessons for effective progress, which are applicable to other fields, include the need for:

complementary competence both in the basic science and in the developmental engineering, including personnel trained in both the fundamental science and the engineering principles underlying new technologies; and

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SELECTED ISSUES

• mechanisms to link different disciplines with each other, universities with industry, and basic scientists with technologists. An additional issue for the Congress to consider is:

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the extent to which the expansion of technological programs for defense is creating shortages of trained personnel in areas critical to our international competitiveness.

Scientific and Engineering Personnel

Only a few issues are discussed under this broad topic. These issues include the real difficulties of a young investigator trying to begin a career in research; the paucity of clinician-researchers; possible shortages of trained research personnel some five years from now; and the role of foreign nationals in U.S. advanced education in science and engineering.

Starting a Research Career

There is, typically, a cyclical pattern to surpluses and shortages of trained research personnel relative to job opportunities. The system tends to adjust to small oscillations; on occasion, the swings become quite large and require national attention. Thus, we now face severe shortages of computer science and engineering faculties as a result of insufficient numbers of doctorates in these fields and the large competition from industry.

In contrast, upon completing their training in biomedical research, many young people cannot find suitable openings and support to continue their research careers. Specifically, the concern is with research trainees in their mid-20's to mid-30's; that is, those who are doing much of the experimental work in fastmoving research fields, such as those described in Part I— oncogenes, atherosclerosis, and parasitology. Similar difficulties were seen in physics in the early 1970's and in mathematics in the late 1970's. The NSF postdoctoral program in mathematics, instituted to prevent the loss of a generation of gifted young mathematicians, may be applicable to other fields of science. Several consequences follow. Promising students may turn

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away from biomedical research in favor of more secure and remunerative careers. Some of the best academic departments admit and train far fewer individuals than their pool of qualified applicants, faculties, and facilities permits. The overall impact— as in other fields of science-eventually may be an insufficient flow of young people into research careers and slower progress in exploiting research advances.

The Institute of Medicine's Committee on National Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel observed that this problem cannot be solved solely at the training level and that it is addressed more effectively in terms of funds available to support faculty members and their research programs.

The cost of equipment to set up a new investigator in many branches of science and engineering now runs into hundreds of thousands of dollars. These funds must come from institutional resources. This precludes many universities from making appointments. Even those research universities with the greatest financial resources are finding it difficult to meet these costs. The result is a pattern of shifting away from bringing young investigators into the system in favor of attracting established investigators who are better able to bring external resources with them.

Clinicians in Research

A related concern is the declining number of clinicians entering research. Yet, clinician-researchers are indispensable for progress in areas such as the biology of atherosclerosis, discussed earlier. Current clinical training programs in universities offer both inadequate salaries to trainees and uncertainty of continued support. The fact that fewer clinicians are entering research undermines the transfer of basic research to clinical practice and lessens the contributions of physicians in directing research into the proper channels for understanding and managing human diseases.

Possible Shortages

Beyond these immediate problems affecting the sufficiency of research personnel, several more may be in the offing. Student 24

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