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persons of all classes in train and train-service accidents during the year 1963 were 3.3 percent higher than in 1962; in 1964 these casualties were only 1.6 percent higher than in 1963, although in 1964 20.1 percent of the freight and yard operations were conducted without firemen (Table C-1).

For the eight months May to December inclusive, casualties to all classes of persons in train and train-service accidents in 1963 were 5.8 percent higher than in 1962, whereas in 1964 these casualties were only 5.1 percent higher than in 1963. During the 1964 period, 31.4 percent of the freight and yard service was operated without firemen, whereas in 1963 practically all of the freight and yard locomotives were manned with firemen (Table C-2).

As heretofore indicated, 1965 data is available only for all types of accidents (train, train-service, and nontrain accidents). Casualties to all classes of persons in all types of accidents were 2.1 percent higher in 1963 than in 1962. 1964 was only 1.5 percent higher than 1963, but 1965 was 7.6 percent lower than 1964, although 47.7 percent of the freight and yard locomotives in the latter year were operated without firemen. The 1965 preliminary total of 27,751 casualties to all classes of persons is lower than the final total for any of the years 1961 through 1964 (Table C-1).

Total casualties to persons of all classes in accidents of all types for the eight months May through December for each of the years 1961 through 1965 are shown on Table C-2. The increase between 1963 and 1964 was less than the increase between 1962 and 1963, and the preliminary figure for 1965 reflects a decline of 9.3 percent, although 51.3 percent of the freight and yard service was operated without firemen.

The last two tables in this series (C-3 and C-4) are identical to the preceding tables except that they cover only casualties to employees on duty. In all substantial respects, they reflect the same reversal or standoff in the comparative increases in casualties in the years 1962 to 1963 and the years 1963 to 1964, and the same decrease in the years 1964 to 1965. For the entire year 1965 these preliminary data reflect a decrease in casualties to employees on duty under 1964 of 8.3 percent, and for the eight months May to December a decrease of 10.1 percent.

1965 preliminary casualty figures included on the tables in this series are subject to upward adjustment because of late reporting or corrections. In 1964 differences between the preliminary and the final figures amounted to 2.3 percent in total casualties and to 1.9 percent in casualties to employees on duty. Changes of a similar magnitude in the final 1965 results would not affect the conclusions which are self evident from an examination of these four tables.

It is clear that the removal of freight and yard firemen commencing in May of 1964 did not have an adverse effect on the casualty record of the United States railroads. Increases between 1963 and 1964 were less than the increases between 1962 and 1963. The available data for 1965, the first full calendar year of substantial operations without firemen, show a substantial improvement over 1964, which should not be substantially altered when the final 1965 figures are compiled by the Interstate Commerce Commission.

1961.

1962.

1963.

1964.

1965.

TABLE C-1.-CASUALTIES TO PERSONS OF ALL CLASSES, U.S. RAILROADS, YEARS 1961-65

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1 Class I line-haul railroads.

2 Not available.

* Preliminary.

Source: ICC Statements M-300, M-400, and M-450.

Casualties in train and
train-service accidents

8 months, MayDecember

TABLE C-2.-CASUALTIES TO PERSONS OF ALL CLASSES, U.S. RAILROADS, MAY-DECEMBER, INCLUSIVE, 1961-65

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operations without firemen 1

year

year

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Source: ICC statements M-300, M 400, and M-450.

TABLE C-3.-CASUALTIES TO EMPLOYEES ON DUTY, U.S. RAILROADS, YEARS 1961-65

Percent of freight and yard operations without firemen 1

Casualties in nontrain
accidents

Total casualties

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year

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Source: ICC statements M-300, M-400, and M-450.

TABLE C-4.-CASUALTIES TO EMPLOYEES ON DUTY, U.S. RAILROADS, MAY TO DECEMBER, INCLUSIVE, 1961-65

8 months, MayDecember

Casualties in train and
train service accidents

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year

year

Percent change over preceding year

without firemen 1

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D. CASUALTY RATES OF TRAIN AND ENGINE SERVICE EMPLOYEES IN TRAIN OPERATIONS

The quarterly casualty frequency rates tabulated on Table D-1 show no relationship between increases in rates and the elimination of firemen's jobs in freight and yard service. The increases in such rates generally were no greater in 1964 than in 1963 or in 1962. Notwithstanding rising traffic levels and the redistribution of the service (see Table B-1), the increases in the majority of the casualty rates were smaller for the year 1964 than for the preceding two years.

That there is no ascertainable relationship between casualty rates and freight and yard operations without firemen is apparent when these data are examined.

For example, the frequency rate during the second half of the year 1964, when 35.1 percent of all freight and yard operations were conducted without firemen was at substantially the same level as during the same period of the preceding year, and was somewhat under the second half of 1961. There were 6.55 casualties per billion gross ton-miles during the second half of 1961; 6.40 during the last half of 1963; and 6.41 during the same months of 1964.

Casualty frequencies during the third quarter of 1964, when 34.0 percent of the service was operated without firemen, were lower than during the same quarter of the year 1961. The casualty rate during the fourth quarter of 1964 was lower than during the fourth quarter of each of the years 1961 and 1963. Although the proportion of the service operated without firemen increased from 34.0 percent during the third quarter of 1964 to 36.2 percent during the fourth quarter of the same year, the casualty rate declined from 6.51 to 6.32. With the exception of the second quarter, all of the 1964 frequency rates show little or no change or declines at the percentage of the service operated without firemen has increased.

As of the present time, figures are not available to permit the calculation of frequency rates for 1965, but the preliminary data now available indicate a continuation of the results reflected on Table D-1, and a probable decline in casualty frequencies in 1965.

TABLE D-1.-CASUALTY RATES PER BILLION GROSS TON-MILES IN TRAIN OPERATION TO TRAIN AND ENGINE SERVICE EMPLOYEES, U.S. RAILROADS

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1 Accident data for all railroads; gross ton-mile data for class I line-haul railroads. Source: ICC Statements M-400 and OS reports.

E. TRAIN ACCIDENTS AND TRAIN ACCIDENT FREQUENCIES

As described in Part A, the number of train accidents reported to the ICC are affected by changes in the levels of costs. Because of higher wage rates and increases in the costs of materials and equipment many accidents which were formerly unreportable, because damage involved was less than $750, are now reportable train accidents. As discussed in Part B, the effect of the redistribution of operations among the several classes of employees no doubt has contributed to the increase in train accident frequencies. Nothwithstanding these factors, the increases in train accident frequencies from 1963 to 1964 were less than the increases from 1962 to 1963. (As shown on Table E-1 for the calendar years 1961 to 1965, and on Table E-2 for eight-month periods, May to December, for the same years.)

Preliminary data for the year 1965 on Tables E-1 and E-2 indicate little or no change in the rate of increase in frequency of train accidents in 1965 over 1964, and a considerable reduction in the rate of increase for the period May to December 1964 to 1965 compared with increases between 1962 and 1963 and between 1963 and 1964. The 1965 preliminary train accident figures shown on all of the tables in this series are subject to upward adjustment because of late reporting or corrections. In 1964 the difference between the preliminary and final train accident totals amounted to 3.3 percent. A change of this size in the 1965 preliminary figures would result in a slightly higher rate of increase between 1964 and 1965 than between 1963 and 1964, but the rate of increase in the eight-month period May to December 1964 to 1965 would still be substantially lower than for the comparable period of 1963 to 1964.

Although since 1961 there has been an upward trend in the frequency of train accidents, there appears to be no relationship between these increases and the amount of service that has been operated without firemen since the Award of Arbitration Board 282 became effective. This is evident from an examination of the data appearing on the following tables.

The data appearing on Table E-3 was derived from figures reported on ICC Statements M-400 for the years 1964, 1963, and 1962. Comparable data for the year 1965 is not yet available. The study covers 76 Class I Line-Haul Railroads, representing a substantial majority of all of the Class I Railroads parties to the Arbitration Award. These 76 carriers were grouped into two categories, those that conducted 35 percent or more of their freight and yard service without firemen during the last six months of the year 1964, and those that conducted less than 35 percent of their freight and yard service without firemen during the same period. There were 33 carriers in the first group and 43 carriers in the second group. The operations of each of the two groups produced approximately the same locomotive and motor train-miles.

The first group of 33 carriers conducted 49.1 percent of their operations without firemen during the last six months of the year 1964. The second group of 43 carriers conducted only 25 percent of their operations without firemen during that period.

The data show that prior to the effective date of the Arbitration Award the 33 carriers in the first group experienced greater increases in their train accident rates than the 43 carriers in the second group. However, following the effective date of the Award of the 33 carriers, which conducted nearly 50 percent of their freight and yard operations without firemen, had lesser increases in their train accident rates than the 43 carriers which conducted only 25 percent of their train operations without firemen. The significance of the comparisons on Table E-3 is that they show no relationship between the extent of operations without firemen and changes in train accident frequency rates. This lack of relationship is further illustrated by the quarterly frequency rates shown on the following table.

Train accident frequency rates for each of the four quarters, as well as the annual rates, for the years 1961 through 1965 are shown on Table E-4.

Accident and casualty frequencies during the first quarter of each calendar year are largely determined by weather conditions, and such data are of limited usefulness in evaluating the effect of other factors. By way of illustration, as shown by the United States Weather Bureau data presented by the carriers in September of 1965 before the Committee on Commerce, United States Senate, weather conditions during the first three months of the year 1964 were relatively and unusually dry and mild. Operating conditions were good throughout the country, and accident and casualty frequencies were abnormally low. Weather conditions were more adverse during the first quarter of 1965, operating conditions were severe in certain parts of the country, and the train accident frequency rate increased by 23.3 percent.

However, in each of the second, third, and fourth quarters of 1965 the increase in train accident frequency rates was less than in the corresponding quarters of 1964 or 1963, although the percent of freight and yard operations without firemen in each of the quarters in 1965 was considerably greater than in the corresponding quarters of 1964. and firemen were employed on practically all freight and yard locomotives in 1963.

The fact that there is no relationship between the extent of operations without firemen and increases in train accident frequencies is further illustrated by an examination of the figures for the third quarter. By the third quarter of 1964, 34 percent of the firemen in freight and yard operations had been eliminated. The percentage increase in the train accident frequency rate was 7.1 percent over the third quarter of the year 1963. In the third quarter of 1963 (prior to the effective date of the Arbitration Award) the percentage increase in train accident frequency over the corresponding quarter of 1962 was 15.5 percent. The same type disparity prevails in the second and fourth quarter rates, with the sole exception of the increase in second quarter of 1964 over the corresponding quarter of 1963. As previously indicated, the 1965 train accident data and frequency rates are preliminary, and are subject to some upward adjustment. An adjustment of 3.3 percent (the size of the 1964 adjustment) would of course increase the 1965 frequency rates, but not sufficiently to affect the conclusion that there is no relationship between train accident frequency rates and the volume of freight and yard operations operated without firemen.

TABLE E-1.-TRAIN ACCIDENTS AND TRAIN ACCIDENT FREQUENCIES. U.S. RAILROADS, YEARS 1961-65

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TABLE E-2.-TRAIN ACCIDENTS AND TRAIN ACCIDENT FREQUENCIES, U.S. RAILROADS, MAY TO DECEMBER

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TABLE E-3.-TRAIN ACCIDENT RATES (PER MILLION LOCOMOTIVE AND MOTOR TRAIN-MILES), CLASS I LINEHAUL RAILROADS

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1 Carriers operating 35 percent or more of their freight and yard service without firemen, July-December 1964
2 Carriers operating less than 35 percent of their freight and yard service without firemen, July-December 1964.
Sources: ICC Statements M-400; ICC Operating Statistics and Annual Transport Statistics.

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